Hello, I would like to try double crux https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/exa5kmvopeRyfJgCy/double-crux-a-strategy-for-resolving-disagreement with someone. My statement A is "There is God" (I indeed believe in it, it is not just for the sake of trying the technique). I have three cruxes (well, two and a half, to be honest), according to the rules...
Suppose you observe the following dialogue: A: If we do X we observe Y. B: We tried X and we did not observe Y. A: Apparently, you did not do X correctly. B: Apparently, there is no Y. The reports of Y are just mistakes in the experiment. There are...
" You sought out evidence to support your belief instead of trying to disprove it to see if it would hold up, like a scientist. "
1. If I would do this I would never go to this website discussing this with you. Assume good intentions.
2. As you said, for infinitesimal prior probability no evidence is enough. That is what I am arguing here. If I get persuaded that probability is indeed infinitesimal, all my evidence are nothing. I can see resurrection of the deads and still it won't be enough then.
3. I can blame the same thing on you. I am not going to guess but there are... (read more)
Well we can also make infinite memory (as you suggested). But, ok, what would you put as prior probability that the theoretically possible observation data is infinite? Looks like you are not strongly against it, so what about something between 0.5 and 0.1? (Of course we can't strictly prove it right now). If you say "yes, this works" we can move on. If you would claim that this probability is also supertiny, like 10^(-1000) , I will continue to argue (well, yes, if we can not at all observe in all the infinite future infinite data, it does not make sense to talk about omniscient God).
To show you what I am... (read more)
Ah, I think I got the point, thank you. However, it does not resolve all questions.
1. You can't deduce Born's rule - only postulate it.
2. Most important, it does not give you a prediction what YOU will observe (unlike hidden parameters - they at least could do it). Yes, you know that some copies will see X, and some will see Y, but it is not an ideal predictor, because you can't say beforehand what you will see, in which copy you will end up. So all your future observed data can not be predicted, only the probability distribution can be.
Mmmm is explanation really that long that I need to read a whole book? Can you maybe summarize it somehow?
" Note that I said "observable universe", not "multiverse" or "cosmos". There are regions of the universe that are not accessible because they are too far away, the universe is expanding, and the speed of light is finite. This limit is called the Cosmic event horizon "
On the one hand side, you are totally correct about it - assuming cosmological constant (lambda-term ) stays what it is. There are nuances however:
-if we are forever in the de Sitter space (lambda dominated, as now) the universe is explicitly not time-invariant (simply because it extending). There is non-zero particle production rate, for example (analog of Hawking radiation). It means that we potentially can... (read more)
" It's not completely hopeless. Maybe in that time we'll figure out how to make basement universes and transfer civilization into a new one, as Nick Bostrom et al have argued may be possible. "
Yeah, you see then all the future possible observations data becomes infinite.
" But even if we ultimately can't, shouldn't we try? Shouldn't we do the best we can? Wouldn't you rather live for over 100 trillion years than die at 120 at best? "
Of course, we should try - because there is a chance that we can. Not because we would live 10^14 years and all die. We will count that we survive forever, or it will be pretty miserable 10^14 years without any hope.
"
Not so sure about that. For this you need at least
1. The Universe to be finite (i.e. you can not have open Universe, only the surface of 4d sphere). It is possible, the measured curvature of the Universe is approximately on the boundary, but the open is also possible.
2. The Universe to be discrete on microscale. Again, according to some theories it is the case, according to the others, it is not.
So, I would say: "maybe yes, it is finite, but the prior probability is far from being 1 ".
Side note: the Universe with finite number of states... (read more)
Well, of course I do not suggest to predict the weather from the laws of QFT, I mean mathematically. Let us consider all possible future observations as a data. Do you think that it can be exactly generated by the theory of the finite length (as an output of the universal Turing machine with the theory as an input), or you would require an infinite length of the theory for the exact reproducing?
" OK, that's a good point. I had not heard of the universal sets than contain themselves, which I thought would lead to contradictions. "
Great, the update of belief :)
Hello,
I would like to try double crux https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/exa5kmvopeRyfJgCy/double-crux-a-strategy-for-resolving-disagreement with someone. My statement A is "There is God" (I indeed believe in it, it is not just for the sake of trying the technique). I have three cruxes (well, two and a half, to be honest), according to the rules I do not publish it here so that you would prepare your cruxes independently.
Thank you!
Suppose you observe the following dialogue:
A: If we do X we observe Y.
B: We tried X and we did not observe Y.
A: Apparently, you did not do X correctly.
B: Apparently, there is no Y. The reports of Y are just mistakes in the experiment.
There are many people joining both positions. Zero hypotheses, or hypothesis of no Y, of course, is simpler than hypothesis of Y that can be observed via X. No theory predicts Y, neither the existence of Y invalidates current theories.
Now, you are another explorer, and you already have all the necessary equipment to do X (and you can ask people supporting A how to... (read more)
" Can't you? Carroll calls it "self-locating uncertainty", which is a synonym for the "indexical uncertainty" we've been talking about. I'll admit I don't know enough quantum physics to follow all the math in that paper. "
That was super cool, thank you a lot for this link!