Zershaaneh Qureshi — LessWrong

AI for societal decision making - How promising is the space? 80,000 Hours profile

Hi everyone, Zershaaneh here! 80,000 Hours has published an article on using AI to improve societal decision making. This post includes some context, the summary from the article, and the table of contents with links to each section. Context This is meant to be a medium-depth, introductory resource for understanding...

Feb 203

New 80,000 Hours problem profile on the risks of power-seeking AI

Hi everyone, Zershaaneh here! Earlier this year, 80,000 Hours published an article explaining the risks of power-seeking AI. This post includes some context, the summary from the article, and the table of contents with links to each section. (I thought this would be easier to navigate than if we just...

Oct 28, 20257

Published report: Pathways to short TAI timelines

Hi everyone! I have just published a report with Convergence Analysis exploring how transformative AI (TAI) could be developed within the next ten years. It’s called Pathways to short TAI timelines (pdf version; Google Doc version). In the report, I examine the debates over compute scaling and recursive improvement as...

Feb 20, 202522

Now THIS is forecasting: understanding Epoch’s Direct Approach

Happy May the 4th from Convergence Analysis! Cross-posted on the EA Forum. As part of Convergence Analysis’s scenario research, we’ve been looking into how AI organisations, experts, and forecasters make predictions about the future of AI. In February 2023, the AI research institute Epoch published a report in which its...

May 4, 202465

AI Clarity: An Initial Research Agenda

Cross-posted on our website: https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/publications/ai-clarity-an-initial-research-agenda Cross-posted on the EA Forum: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JyhoTRXxYvLfFycXi/ai-clarity-an-initial-research-agenda Executive Summary Transformative AI (TAI) has the potential to solve many of humanity's most pressing problems, but it may also pose an existential threat to our future. This significant potential of TAI warrants careful study of the AI’s possible...

May 3, 202418

Thousands of malicious actors on the future of AI misuse

Announcing the results of a 2024 survey by Convergence Analysis. We’ve just posted the executive summary below, but you can read the full report here. In the largest survey of its kind, Convergence Analysis surveyed 2,779 malicious actors on how they would misuse AI to catastrophic ends. In previous work,...

Apr 1, 202437

Timelines to Transformative AI: an investigation

Cross-posted on the EA Forum. This post is part of a series by Convergence Analysis’ AI Clarity team. Justin Bullock and Elliot Mckernon have recently motivated AI Clarity’s focus on the notion of transformative AI (TAI). In an earlier post, Corin Katzke introduced a framework for applying scenario planning methods...

Mar 26, 202420