Predictions For 2017

Scott Alexander made 105 predictions for 2017. Most of them are not personal and are listed below. Want to see how your predictions will compare to his? Think you can do better? Go ahead and vote. Arbital will send you a follow up email at the end of the year to tell you how you did.

World events

1. In 2017, US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers
2. In 2017, North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt
3. In 2017, no terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people
4. In 2017, no terrorist attack in any First World country will kill > 100 people
5. In 2017, Assad will remain President of Syria
6. In 2017, Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state
7. In 2017 there will be no major intifada in Israel (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war)
8. 2017 will have no interesting progress with Gaza or peace negotiations in general
9. There will be no Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza in 2017
10. Situation in Israel will look more worse than better by end of 2017
11. Syria’s civil war will not end in 2017
12. By end of 2017 ISIS will control less territory than it did at the beginning of the year
13. ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by end of 2017
14. In 2017, there will be no major civil war in Middle Eastern country not already experiencing a major civil war at the beginning of 2017
15. Libya will remain a mess in 2017
16. In 2017, Ukraine will neither break into all-out war or get neatly resolved
17. 2017 will not have any major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party
18. No major war in Asia (with >100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean, and American deaths combined) over "tiny stupid islands" in 2017
19. No exchange of fire over "tiny stupid islands" in 2017
20. There will be no announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such in 2017
21. In 2017, EMDrive is launched into space and testing is successfully begun
22. In 2017, a significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works
23. In 2017, a significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work
24. No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US in 2017
25. No major earthquake (>10,000 deaths) in the world in 2017
26. Keith Ellison will be chosen as new DNC chair in 2017

Europe

27. No country currently in Euro or EU will announce new plan to leave in 2017
28. France will not declare a plan to leave EU in 2017
29. Germany will not declare a plan to leave EU
30. No agreement will be reached on "two-speed EU"
31. The UK will trigger Article 50 in 2017
32. Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017
33. Angela Merkel will be re-elected Chancellor of Germany in 2017
34. Theresa May will remain PM of Britain in 2017
35. Fewer refugees admitted by Europe in 2017 than 2016

Economics

36. Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000
37. Oil will end 2017 higher than $50 a barrel
38. Oil will end 2017 lower than $60 a barrel
39. Dow Jones will not end 2017 down by more than 10%
40. Shanghai index will not end 2017 down by more than 10%

Trump administration

41. Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017
42. No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump in 2017
43. In 2017, construction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins
44. In 2017, Trump administration will not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton
45. 2017 US GDP growth will be lower than in 2016
46. US unemployment to be higher at end of 2017 than beginning
47. In 2017, US does not withdraw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA
48. In 2017, US does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy
49. There will be no race riot killing > 5 people in 2017
50. In 2017, US lifts at least half of existing sanctions on Russia
51. Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent
52. Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than forty percent

Communities

53. SSC will remain active by end of 2017
54. In 2017 SSC will get fewer hits than in 2016
55. In 2017 at least one SSC post will have more than 100,000 hits

... skipping a few overly individual predictions...

60. Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of 2017
61. SlateStarCodex will have more than 15,000 Twitter followers by end of 2017