LESSWRONG
LW

Prediction MarketsReplication Crisis
Personal Blog

29

Help forecast study replication in this social science prediction market

by rosiecam
7th Aug 2019
1 min read
3

29

Prediction MarketsReplication Crisis
Personal Blog

29

Help forecast study replication in this social science prediction market
2romeostevensit
3Pattern
2habryka
New Comment
3 comments, sorted by
top scoring
Click to highlight new comments since: Today at 11:28 PM
[-]romeostevensit6y20

First linky no worky.

Signed up.

Reply
[-]Pattern6y30

Links still work, I think it's a cross-posting issue.

Link.

(Details: If you click on it, it goes to: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XzetppcF8BNoDqFBs/https://www.lesswrong.com/out?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.replicationmarkets.com%2F

If you shorten that to:

https://www.lesswrong.com/out?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.replicationmarkets.com%2F

It redirects to:

https://www.replicationmarkets.com/ )

Reply
[-]habryka6y20

Yeah, bug on our side. Just merging a PR that fixes it. Will be fixed within the day.

https://github.com/LessWrong2/Lesswrong2/pull/2264#pullrequestreview-272171432

Reply
Moderation Log
Curated and popular this week
3Comments

This is a linkpost for: https://www.replicationmarkets.com/

From their sign-up page:

Help the Replication Markets team spot reliable science, and win $$!
From mid-2019 to mid-2020, we will run prediction markets on 3,000 recently-published social and behavioral science claims. We want you to forecast the outcomes of possible replication trials. On average, only about 50% of published social science results replicate, but it’s not a coin toss: four previous markets have been about 75% accurate. We think we can beat 80%, while forecasting 10-100x as many claims.
Join us to improve social and behavioral science, try new kinds of markets and surveys, and earn $$ prizes. (Over $100,000 in total prizes, distributed via Google Pay, among a target pool of 500 forecasters based on accuracy and contributions.)
Please look around, see the Replication Markets Home Page for more details, or click “Sign Up” to join.