This seems to be highly sensitive to the amount of time EAs currently spend on deciding. I think that most people are likely to end up not donating at all if they feel pressure to spend more than 2 hours making a decision - I'm not sure if EAs are selected enough to mitigate that factor.
I also moderately believe that most EAs will not use the extra time very well (e.g. just pouring the extra time into more detailed analyses of two similar causes).
3I agree with this on timescales of around 1,000,000 years or so, but disagree with the colloquial interpretation that this is something that would be useful in mitigating the x-risks we currently face.
2Alright, I've reworked this part, do you think it is better now?
1I think this sentence would be easier to read without the parenthesis around the second sentence.
1right, fixed!
2
That was a quick estimate of the timescale where mitigating astronomical black swans becomes worth doing.