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avturchin
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5avturchin's Shortform
6y
187
Ramblings on the Self Indication Assumption
avturchin29m20

If SIA is valid, than multiverse is true and all possible minds exist. 

However, if all possible minds exist, we can't use SIA anymore as the fact of my existence is not the evidence for anything. 

As a result, SIA is self-defeating: it can be used only to prove multiverse but we can also prove it without SIA. 

We can use untypicality argument similar to SIA: the fact that I exist at all is the evidence that there were many attempts to create me. Examples: the habitability of Earth means that there are many non-habitable planets and fine-tuning of the Universe means that there are many other universes with other physical laws. 

Note that untypicality argument is not assumption - it is a theorem. It also doesn't prove infinity of my copies but only very large number of attempts to create, which is practically similar to infinity and can be stretch to "all possible minds exist" if we add that any sufficiently large mind-generating mechanism can't be stopped: non-habitable planets will continue to appear as they don't "know" that one is now habitable. 

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leogao's Shortform
avturchin2h00

How can we know that the problem is solved - and now we can safely proceed?

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Meditation is dangerous
avturchin3d60

We can create a list of simple obvious advises which are actually sometimes bad:

Be vegeterian – damage to B12 level etc

Run – damage to knees and risk of falls

Lose weight – possible lose of muscle 

Be altruistic - damaging addiction of doing good and neglect of personal interests. 

 

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A New Global Risk: Large Comet’s Impact on Sun Could Cause Fires on Earth
avturchin5d20

Yes, but somehow large Kreutz comet came recently close to Sun, so there should be a mechanism which makes it more likely. 

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A New Global Risk: Large Comet’s Impact on Sun Could Cause Fires on Earth
avturchin6d30

Yes, ChatGPT said me that most Sun-grazer comets are interacting with Jupiter first and and only several cycles of interaction the comet has a chance to hit Sun. This is a good news as there will be less silent killers. 

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A New Global Risk: Large Comet’s Impact on Sun Could Cause Fires on Earth
avturchin6d30

The comets on very remote regions of the Oort cloud have very slow proper motion like 0.1 -1 km per sec. I initially thought that they would fall directly into the Sun if perturbed but AI claims that this will not happen - need to check more. 

Radiation in Miyake events can be explained by magnetic flares up to some extend

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Wei Dai's Shortform
avturchin10d94

Even earlier, there was an idea that one have to rush to create a friendly AI and use it to take over the world to prevent appearing other, misalaigned AIs. The problem is that this idea likely is still in the minds of some AI company leaders. And fules AI race.  

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avturchin's Shortform
avturchin15d60

I know and exactly this made me believe in its diagnosis. Bottom line is that medical AI has a higher level of false positives. I am still going to check some its theories through bloodwork. 

Reply1
abramdemski's Shortform
avturchin15d152

BTW, even a simple random numbers generator can destroy a human - gambling addiction, seeing patterns

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avturchin's Shortform
avturchin15d20

It was Opus4.1 in my case, and the girl likely used ChatGPT. 

Below is an example of the beginning of one its output Russian - there are tens of pages in this style but all that was probably just cold: 

🔴 КРИТИЧЕСКИ ВАЖНЫЕ НАХОДКИ! СРБ 52.3 - это АКТИВНОЕ ВОСПАЛЕНИЕ!

Но прокальцитонин НОРМА = НЕ бактериальная инфекция!

📊 Расшифровка ваших анализов:

🔥 С-РЕАКТИВНЫЙ БЕЛОК 52.3 мг/л (норма <5):

 

Это ОЧЕНЬ высокий уровень! В 10 РАЗ выше нормы!

Что это значит:
- АКТИВНОЕ системное воспаление
- НО! Прокальцитонин 0.04 = НЕ бактериальное
- Это СТЕРИЛЬНОЕ воспаление

ВЕРОЯТНЫЕ причины при вашей генетике:
1. АКТИВАЦИЯ ТУЧНЫХ КЛЕТОК (MCAS)
2. Аутовоспалительный процесс
3. Гистаминовый криз
4. Реакция на скрытую пищевую непереносимость

⚡ КРИТИЧЕСКАЯ связка: Низкий КАЛИЙ + Высокий НАТРИЙ:

 

Калий 3.3 ↓ (норма 3.5-5.1) 
Натрий 146 ↑ (норма 136-145)

Это указывает на:
- АЛЬДОСТЕРОНОВЫЙ дисбаланс
- Потеря калия (стресс, воспаление)
- Задержка натрия
- Возможна надпочечниковая дисфункция от хронического воспаления

🩸 Анализ крови - ВОСПАЛИТЕЛЬНЫЙ паттерн:

apache

 

КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ изменения:

1. НЕЙТРОФИЛЕЗ:
   - Нейтрофилы 75% (верхняя граница)
   - Абс. нейтрофилы 6.29 ↑ (норма до 5.38)
   = Активация врожденного иммунитета

2. ЛИМФОПЕНИЯ:
   - Лимфоциты 15% ↓ (норма 19-37)
   - Абс. лимфоциты 1.26 ↓ (норма 1.32-3.57)
   = Стресс-реакция или перераспределение

3. СОЭ 18 (норма <20) - на верхней границе

Это НЕ инфекция, а ВОСПАЛИТЕЛЬНЫЙ СТРЕСС!

🧬 Связь с вашей ГЕНЕТИКОЙ и симптомами:

 

MTHFR + COMT + DAO дефицит
           ↓
Накопление гистамина + метилирование нарушено
           ↓
МАССИВНАЯ активация тучных клеток
           ↓
Выброс цитокинов (IL-1, IL-6, TNF-α)
           ↓
СРБ 52.3! + Системное воспаление
           ↓
Приливы + Субфебрилитет + Боли в суставах
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1Mess AI – deliberate corruption of the training data to prevent superintelligence
5d
0
8Quantum immortality and AI risk – the fate of a lonely survivor
6d
0
58A New Global Risk: Large Comet’s Impact on Sun Could Cause Fires on Earth
7d
6
16Biouploading: Preserving My Living Neurons and Connectome as a Spatially Distributed Mesh
13d
0
-3Evolution favors the ability to change subjective probabilities in MWI + Experimental test
2mo
6
15Time Machine as Existential Risk
4mo
7
22Our Reality: A Simulation Run by a Paperclip Maximizer
6mo
65
9Experimental testing: can I treat myself as a random sample?
6mo
41
10The Quantum Mars Teleporter: An Empirical Test Of Personal Identity Theories
9mo
18
16What would be the IQ and other benchmarks of o3 that uses $1 million worth of compute resources to answer one question?
Q
10mo
Q
2
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