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avturchin
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5avturchin's Shortform
6y
192
Please, Don't Roll Your Own Metaethics
avturchin7h50

Actually, anytime I encounter a complex problem, I do exactly this: I create a list of all possible ideas and – if I can – probabilities. It is time consuming brut-forcing. See examples: 

The table of different sampling assumptions in anthropics

Types of Boltzmann Brains

What AI Safety Researchers Have Written About the Nature of Human Values

[Paper]: Classification of global catastrophic risks connected with artificial intelligence


I am surprised that it is not a normal approach despite its truly Bayesian nature. 

Reply1
Please, Don't Roll Your Own Metaethics
avturchin1d50

I don't understand your lol here - am I wrong? Is world  wrong?

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Warning Aliens About the Dangerous AI We Might Create
avturchin2d20

Request for help and also expose our AI future AI as potentially misaligned so it would have double down to pretend to be aligned. 

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Warning Aliens About the Dangerous AI We Might Create
avturchin2d50

We can not only warn them, but request help. In that case, their age is not a problem - but distance is. 
 

Also expose our future AI as potentially misaligned, so it would have double down to pretend to be aligned. 

Reply
Please, Don't Roll Your Own Metaethics
avturchin2d30

Can we: create a full list or map of ideas and after that add probabilities to each one?

Reply1
Undissolvable Problems: things that still confuse me
avturchin2d1-3

In my view: Qualia are a type of mathematical objects which depends only from themselves. This explains first two questions. 
1 Only qualia exist which depends only from themselves. 
2 Only consciousness content is real and the universe outside is just a way to describe how one qualia is connected with another (This view was suggested by Ernst Mach - I will make a post about soon). 

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Warning Aliens About the Dangerous AI We Might Create
avturchin2d30

Our warning message can be received in many points "simultaneously" - so they don't need to spend more time exchanging information across Andromeda galaxy and can start preparing locally. 

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Warning Aliens About the Dangerous AI We Might Create
avturchin2d20

I asked AI about it and it told me that large radiotelescope may suffice. However, the main uncertainty is receivers equipment. If they are on Proxima, they suspect that there is life near Sun, so constant observations are possible - but the size of receiver depends on Kardashev level of civilization. 

Advance civilizations will have larger receiving dishes, may be the size of Dyson spheres - but such civilizations are farther (or they will be here). 

Therefore, relation distanace/reciver-size is approximately constant. 

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Warning Aliens About the Dangerous AI We Might Create
avturchin2d30

I think that METI theorists have such calculations. 

I analyzed (related to SETI-risk) the ways how to send self-evident data and concluded that the best starting point is to send two-dimensional images encoded in the ways like old school TV signal. 

No, it was just stating the facts: the discussion of METI risks continues for decades and positions of opponents and proponents are entrenched. 

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Warning Aliens About the Dangerous AI We Might Create
avturchin2d20

Yes. So here is the choice between two theories of existential risk. One is that there is no dangerous AI possible and aliens are near and slow. In that case, METI is dangerous. Another is that superintelligent AI is possible soon and present the main risk and aliens are far. Such choice boils down to discussion about AI risk in general. 

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65Warning Aliens About the Dangerous AI We Might Create
3d
25
1Mess AI – deliberate corruption of the training data to prevent superintelligence
1mo
0
8Quantum immortality and AI risk – the fate of a lonely survivor
1mo
0
58A New Global Risk: Large Comet’s Impact on Sun Could Cause Fires on Earth
1mo
6
16Biouploading: Preserving My Living Neurons and Connectome as a Spatially Distributed Mesh
1mo
0
-3Evolution favors the ability to change subjective probabilities in MWI + Experimental test
3mo
6
15Time Machine as Existential Risk
5mo
7
19Our Reality: A Simulation Run by a Paperclip Maximizer
7mo
65
9Experimental testing: can I treat myself as a random sample?
7mo
41
10The Quantum Mars Teleporter: An Empirical Test Of Personal Identity Theories
10mo
18
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