This is an 8-page comprehensive summary of the results from Threshold 2030: a recent expert conference on economic impacts hosted by Convergence Analysis, Metaculus, and the Future of Life Institute. Please see the linkpost for the full end-to-end report, which is 80 pages of analysis and 100+ pages of raw...
Full version on arXiv | X Executive summary AI risk scenarios usually portray a relatively sudden loss of human control to AIs, outmaneuvering individual humans and human institutions, due to a sudden increase in AI capabilities, or a coordinated betrayal. However, we argue that even an incremental increase in AI...
Deger Turan, Tantum Collins, davidad and Charbel-Raphael Segerie contributed to the writing of this post. Andrew Critch, Ben Goldhaber, Ozzie Gooen, and Evan Miyazono reviewed this post. tl;dr: Open Agency Architecture (OAA) is a bold proposal for AI alignment. It requires a wide ranging formal-modeling enterprise that integrates into a...