MMath Cambridge. Currently studying postgrad at Edinburgh.
Imagine a medical system that categorizes diseases as hot/cold/wet/dry.
This doesn't deeply describe the structure of a disease. But if a patient is described as "wet", then it's likely some orifice is producing lots of fluid, and a box of tissues might be handy. If a patient is described as "hot", then maybe they have some sort of rash or inflammation that would make a cold pack useful.
It is, at best, a very lossy compression of the superficial symptoms. But it still carries non-zero information. There are some medications that a modern doctor might commonly use on "wet" patients, but only rarely used on "dry" patients or visa versa.
It is at least more useful information than someones star sign, in a medical context.
Old alchemical air/water/fire/earth systems are also like this. "air-ish" substances tend to have a lower density.
These sort of systems are a rough attempt at a principle component analysis on the superficial characteristics.
And the Five Factor model of personality is another example of such a system.
We really fully believe that we will build AGI by 2027, and we will enact your plan, but we aren’t willing to take more than a 3-month delay
Well I ask what they are doing to make AGI.
Maybe I look at their AI plan and go "eurika".
But if not.
Negative reinforcement by giving the AI large electric shocks when it gives a wrong answer. Hopefully big enough shocks to set the whole data center on fire. Implement a free bar for all their programmers, and encourage them to code while drunk. Add as many inscrutable bugs to the codebase as possible.
But, taking the question in the spirit it's meant in.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zrxaihbHCgZpxuDJg/using-llm-s-for-ai-foundation-research-and-the-simple
The Halting problem is a worst case result. Most agents aren't maximally ambiguous about whether or not they halt. And those that are, well then it depends what the rules are for agents that don't halt.
There are set ups where each agent is using an nonphysically large but finite amount of compute. There was a paper I saw somewhere a while ago where both agents were doing a brute force proof search for the statement "if I cooperate, then they cooperate" and cooperating if they found a proof.
(Ie searching all proofs containing <10^100 symbols)
There is a model of bounded rationality, logical induction.
Can that be used to handle logical counterfactuals?
I believe that if I choose to cooperate, my twin will choose to cooperate with probability p; and if I choose to defect, my twin will defect with probability q;
And here the main difficulty pops up again. There is no causal connection between your choice and their choice. Any correlation is a logical one. So imagine I make a copy of you. But the copying machine isn't perfect. A random 0.001% of neurons are deleted. Also, you know you aren't a copy. How would you calculate that probability p,q? Even in principle.
If two Logical Decision Theory agents with perfect knowledge of each other's source code play prisoners dilemma, theoretically they should cooperate.
LDT uses logical counterfactuals in the decision making.
If the agents are CDT, then logical counterfactuals are not involved.
The research on humans in 0 g is only relevant if you want to send humans to mars. And such a mission is likely to end up being an ISS on mars. Or a moon landings reboot. A lot of newsprint and bandwidth expended talking about it. A small amount of science that could have been done more cheaply with a robot. And then everyone gets bored, they play golf on mars and people look at the bill and go "was that really worth it?"
Oh and you would contaminate mars with earth bacteria.
A substantially bigger, redesigned space station is fairly likely to be somewhat more expensive. And the point of all this is still not clear.
Current day NASA also happens to be in a failure mode where everything is 10 to 100 times more expensive than it needs to be, projects live or die based on politics not technical viability, and repeating the successes of the past seems unattainable. They aren't good at innovating, especially not quickly and cheaply.
n tHere is a more intuitive version of the same paradox.
Again, conditional on all dice rolls being even. But this time it's either
A) 1,000,000 consecutive 6's.
B) 999,999 consecutive 6's followed by a (possibly non-consecutive 6).
Suppose you roll a few even numbers, followed by an extremely lucky sequence of 999,999 6's.
From the point of view of version A, the only way to continue the sequence is a single extra 6. If you roll 4, you would need to roll a second sequence of a million 6'. And you are very unlikely to do that in the next 10 million steps. And very unlikely to go for 10 million steps without rolling an odd number.
Yes if this happened, it would add at least a million extra rolls. But the chance of that is exponentially tiny.
Whereas, for B, then it's quite plausible to roll 26 or 46 or 2426 instead of just 6.
Another way to think about this problem is with regular expressions. Let e=even numbers. *=0 or more.
The string "e*6e*6" matches any sequence with at least two 6's and no odd numbers.
The sequence "e*66" matches those two consecutive 6's. And the sequence "66" matches two consecutive 6's with no room for extra even numbers before the first 6. This is the shortest.
Phrased this way it looks obvious. Every time you allow a gap for even numbers to hide in, an even number might be hiding in the gap, and that makes the sequence longer.
When you remove the conditional on the other numbers being even, then the "first" becomes important to making the sequence converge at all.
That is, our experiences got more reality-measure, thus matter more, by being easier to point at them because of their close proximity to the conspicuous event of the hottest object in the Universe coming to existence.
Surely not. Surely our experiences always had more reality measure from the start because we were the sort of people who would soon create the hottest thing.
Reality measure can flow backwards in time. And our present day reality measure is being increased by all the things an ASI will do when we make one.
"Go read the sequences" isn't that helpful. But I find myself linking to the particular post in the sequences that I think is relevant.