The last few weeks I felt the opposite of this. I kind of go back and forth on thinking they are plateauing and then I get surprised with the new Sonnet version or o1-preview. I also experiment with my own prompting a lot.
Myself, I feel like every two weeks or so we see this kind of post with similar style to Eliezer's so it feels repetitive... but I may be wrong though, just my reaction after seeing that post.
I'm kind of against it. There's a line and I draw it there, it's just too much power waiting to fall in a bad actor's hand...
May you possibly be underestimating how hard it is to build a startup?
hilarious
Hey, I think you should also consider how the out-of-nowhere narrative-breaking nature of COVID. Which also happened after you wrote this. It's not necessarily a proof that the narrative can "break," but it sure is an example.
And, while I think I read the sequences way longer than 4 years ago, if I remember something it gave me is a sense of "everything can change very, very fast."
Thank you for being a temporary asshole, that is a great comment. Does it occur to you how it can be done?
the first prediction market about this was in 8 november on polymarket and surprisingly it was 94 percent probability on them not halting withdrawals
Magic not needed... someone sees that SBF offers 3 billion to buy a piece of twitter, gets spooked and aggregates it on the prediction market -> this raises the probability that it's doing something shady (then any other assessment will be aggregated) now when FTX offers EA some money, we know the probability of them doing something shady... have some info to make a better decision (I noticed Scott Alexander writing about this)
I disagree extremely. This is the best moment of my life. I am at the best point of my career (powered by o1 and o3 research previews is allowing me to reach the best solutions I couldn't imagine reaching on my own, much less in such short time) it has helped me create two companies now completely different from my career (I have optimized hydroponic setups and cultivation of mushrooms purely with o1-pro to incredible levels.) My father, a doctor, tells me his patients are better than ever only because his use of o1, doctors are using it in their meetings with their most difficult to diagnose patients. My girlfriends uses it for mental health. I could continue. I feel so empowered. I have read too much of alignment to think that we are going to make it. It's up to you -really- to choose to feel empowered or down about it. I'm honestly having the best time of my life.