Thank you!

No clear findings, no. However, the biggest period at which I shook the feeling was when I returned to work after a 3-month leave, and began working on an LLM Agent in early 2022 (back when that was very new and very exciting, instead of a thing that’s everywhere like today). I was up and excited and energetic for at least a month straight, and I think longer than that. 

Now I’m back to finding work somewhat uninteresting, and also back to being tired. So one theory that is always lurking in my head now is: am I tired because I am bored? Some additional evidence: I began playing poker with friends in person recently, and have not once been tired while at poker night. Nor did I have many tiredness issues while on vacation in Japan.
 

I don’t think this is the whole story, but I think it’s more of the story than I appreciated 3 years ago.

I find the evidence being asserted unclear. Is the entire thought here based on what hours of the day he’s posting on X? Is it rather the content of his X posts that is the strongest indication? Or is it what Musk has said in his recent televised appearances? I’ve found him reserved and even-spoken in the clips I’ve watched, though I don’t read his X posts, so I am having trouble understanding why you think this in the first place.

I quite enjoyed the fan-written sequel Significant Digits: https://www.anarchyishyperbole.com/p/significant-digits.html?m=1

Yesterday, I realized in my conversations with Claude over the past week or so, I don’t think it’s talked about how much of a genius I am, perhaps not even once. I remember in the fall it would do this all the time. Maybe there’s been an update?

The Elections panel on OP’s image says “combat disinformation”, so while you’re technically right, I think Christian’s “fighting election misinformation” rephrasing is close enough to make no difference.

Well okay then :)! You giving a disagree-vote makes a lot of sense. Thanks for explaining.

I am not sure what people are disagreeing with here. The only factual claims I see are “the preexisting chain of command is incompetent or corrupt”, which I agree with (on incompetence), that “the president has a lot of power”, “is supposed to control all the agencies”, and “if the new CEO of a private company…”. None of these seem incorrect to me. I’ve strong-upvoted in both ways.

I had seen recommendations for T3/T4 on twitter to help with low energy, and even purchased some, but haven’t taken it. I hadn’t considered that the thyroid might respond by shrinking, and now think that that’s a worrying intervention! So I’m glad I read this - thank you.

Oh… wait a minute! I looked up Principal of Indifference, to try and find stronger assertions on when it should or shouldn’t be used, and was surprised to see what it actually means! Wikipedia:

>The principle of indifference states that in the absence of any relevant evidence, agents should distribute their credence (or "degrees of belief") equally among all the possible outcomes under consideration. In Bayesian probability, this is the simplest non-informative prior.

So I think the superior is wrong to call it “principle of indifference”! You are the one arguing for indifference: “it could hit anywhere in a radius around the targets, and we can’t say more” is POI. “It is more likely to hit the adult you aimed at” is not POI! It’s an argument about the tendency of errors to cancel.

Error cancelling tends to produce Gaussian distributions. POI gives uniform distributions.

I still think I agree with the superior that it’s marginally more likely to hit the target aimed for, but now I disagree with them that this assertion is POI.