O O

If the DoJ goes through with the Google breakup,where does Deepmind end up?

A few predictions: A google subsidiary starts selling TPUs. Deepmind seeks outside funding and moves to productize their suite. GCP becomes more viable. Google search loses market share and is forced to compete with Gemini’s offerings. OAI and Anthropic have enormous revenue streams open up. Timeline effects: Acceleration due to...

Oct 12, 20245

Thoughts on Francois Chollet's belief that LLMs are far away from AGI?

Dwarkesh had a podcast recently with Francois Chollet (creator of Keras) He seems fairly skeptical we are anywhere near AGI with LLMs. He mostly bases his intuition that LLMs fail on OOD tasks and don't seem to be good at solving simple abstract reasoning problems he calls the ARC challenge....

Jun 14, 202426

What happens to existing life sentences under LEV?

Presumably they get offered longevity treatments since they already get healthcare. Are they locked up until the end of time? For 100 years?

Jun 9, 20245

Hot take: The AI safety movement is way too sectarian and this is greatly increasing p(doom)

The movement to reduce AI x-risk is overly purist. This is leading to a lot of sects to maintain each individual sect's platonic level of purity and is actively (greatly) harming the cause. How the Safety Sects Manifest * People suggest not publishing AI research * More recently, Jan and...

May 19, 202414

Supposing the 1bit LLM paper pans out

https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.17764 claims that 1 bit LLMs are possible. If this scales, I'd imagine there is a ton of speedup to unlock since our hardware has been optimized for 1 bit operations for decades. What does this imply for companies like nvidia and the future of LLM inference/training? Do we get...

Feb 29, 202427

OpenAI wants to raise 5-7 trillion

This 5-7 trillion is to enhance GPU production and he also sees revenue doubling from current $2 billion to $4 billion next year. I’m taking a guess GPT-5 training is going well?

Feb 9, 202413

O O's Shortform

Jun 3, 20231

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O O

Supposing the 1bit LLM paper pans out

Thoughts on Francois Chollet's belief that LLMs are far away from AGI?

Hot take: The AI safety movement is way too sectarian and this is greatly increasing p(doom)

OpenAI wants to raise 5-7 trillion

O O

Supposing the 1bit LLM paper pans out

Thoughts on Francois Chollet's belief that LLMs are far away from AGI?

Hot take: The AI safety movement is way too sectarian and this is greatly increasing p(doom)

OpenAI wants to raise 5-7 trillion

If the DoJ goes through with the Google breakup,where does Deepmind end up?

Thoughts on Francois Chollet's belief that LLMs are far away from AGI?

What happens to existing life sentences under LEV?

Hot take: The AI safety movement is way too sectarian and this is greatly increasing p(doom)

Supposing the 1bit LLM paper pans out

OpenAI wants to raise 5-7 trillion

O O's Shortform