By 2027, evaluations are showing that frontier models—including open-source models—could meaningfully help in engineering pandemics, if bad actors so chose. There's a messy but moderately effective effort by AI safety organisations and several agencies within governments to have some sort of misuse mitigation measures in place, in particular for API-accessible models. However, in the absence of a major incident, governments don't care enough, and open-source models seem hard to contain. Also, some bioterrorism continues being blocked by wet lab skills and