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RussellThor — LessWrong

Beliefs and position going into 2026

1mo

At least every year now I will state my current position, reflect on that I had a year ago, check predictions etc.
Here is last years article and 6 month update. I haven't changed my position on anything major.

Main points

Transformer architecture won't get to TAI (Transformative AI), however it may get close.

This is probably my most important prediction and it is based mostly on data efficiency. Quite simply, Einstein did not need to read the entire human literature to be creative. Current AI needs far more data than humans. LLM and self driving both follow this pattern, I believe it is a fundamental limitation of the current architecture. LLM may however speed up... (read 1414 more words →)

The anti-Kardashev scale is a better measure of civilizational power

RussellThor

7mo

This post is making a point that would appear to be obvious, however given how the Kardashev scale and direct energy usage comes up often in popular discussion, it seems it needs to be made. The Kardashev scale is a poor measure of civilizations progress and power.

The Kardashev scale is not at all even in terms of difficulty

An essential feature a scale must have to be useful is that the levels on it must be somewhat evenly spaced. The Kardashev scale does not have that, and I will stretch the point here by arguing that K3, harnessing the power of a galaxy is in fact below K2 (star) from one point of... (read 637 more words →)

Beliefs and state of mind into 2025

RussellThor

This post is to record the state of my thinking at the start of 2025. I plan to update these reflections in 6-12 months depending on how much changes in the field of AI.

1. Summary

It is best not to pause AI progress until at least one major AI lab achieves a system capable of providing approximately a 10x productivity boost for AI research, including performing almost all tasks of an AI researcher. Extending the time we remain in such a state is critical for ensuring positive outcomes.

If it was possible to stop AI progress sometime before that and focus just on mind uploading, that would be preferable, however I don’t think that... (read 1823 more words →)

Dishbrain and implications.

RussellThor

I believe that AI research has not given sufficient attention to learning directly from biology, particularly through the direct observation and manipulation of neurons in controlled environments. Furthermore, even after learning all that biology has to offer, neurons could still play a part in the post TAI world economy as they could be cheaper and faster to grow than chips are to manufacture.

Pre TAI – study neurons to greatly increase learning capability

As I have said in other places on this site, I believe that the current transformer architecture will not scale to TAI, because it does not learn fast enough or generalize well enough from data compared to biology. For example, Tesla... (read 467 more words →)

Vision of a positive Singularity

RussellThor

Introduction

Many people feel significant anxiety about how AI and superintelligence will play out, regarding both the ultimate outcome and the intermediate stages. There is the sense that some kind of loss is inevitable as humanity becomes more powerful in this way. There is also the concern that there will be no place for a person or society with existing values any more as things progress. I try to think up a plan and system of values that will respect everyone's desires as much as possible. The goal is to ensure coexistence among groups with differing values, minimizing conflict over competing visions for the future.

A clear positive vision is important in times of... (read 1171 more words →)

Of Birds and Bees

RussellThor

The Hierarchy

There is a hierarchy in life from simple cells to complex cells to multi-cellular creatures to creatures that often live in a groups like birds and bees. As we go up the hierarchy the lower levels have less individual say. For example the mitochondria have no individual life or fitness outside of the cell, and the cells success is not meaningfully measured outside that of the organism in multi-cellular creatures.

Generally as we go up the hierarchy the higher level is more complex and smarter than the lower level. A brain can think, a neuron cannot. A hive of bees or ants is more capable than an individual.

Bird patterns

However you see sometimes... (read 403 more words →)

Drone Wars Endgame

RussellThor

Note: Updates at end of article on 9 Dec 2025 to reflect recent changes

1. Introduction

It is probably becoming clear to anyone who follows war lately, especially the Ukraine conflict that automatic weapons, especially drones are rapidly changing what weapons and tactics are effective.

The purpose of this article is to first consider how a fully autonomous force with current or near term tech would go against a state of the art conventional force, then to consider where the equilibrium would be on attack vs defense for autonomous forces using advanced but foreseeable tech.

1.1 Description of fully autonomous force using near term tech

The idea is to have a force with as few different types... (read 2700 more words →)

Little attention seems to be on discouraging hardware progress

RussellThor

There is a lot of attention being given to AI software progress, potential regulation etc., however articles such as this celebrating potential progress towards a step change in AI ability seem to get little attention and a free pass in the press as being uncontroversial.

As someone who believes a slow takeoff is likely (though not with enough certainty to be comfortable), I would like to see more emphasis placed on the potential disruption from hardware advancements. I contend that with our current production capacity of roughly 50 million GPUs per year, and given their current specifications, it is unlikely that they could pose an existential risk, regardless of the level of software... (read more)

P-zombies, Compression and the Simulation Hypothesis

RussellThor

Can we have approximate p-zombies?

Lets say we accept that p-zombies don't make sense because of the core arguments. However what about a creature who's behavior is very similar to the target but with a different neural software? That is a simulated person who's behavior is different only by a small, perhaps undetectable amount from the real person, but with internal software so different that we would not expect them to have the same consciousness, if any at all?

Approximate p-zombies would be very useful for Simulations

Say you want to run an ancestor simulation. Your goal is to have the resulting world turn out as accurate as possible after a number of years. This... (read 1341 more words →)

LESSWRONG
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RussellThor

Drone Wars Endgame

Beliefs and state of mind into 2025

Has the Symbol Grounding Problem just gone away?

Of Birds and Bees

RussellThor

RussellThor

Beliefs and position going into 2026

The anti-Kardashev scale is a better measure of civilizational power

Beliefs and state of mind into 2025

Dishbrain and implications.

Vision of a positive Singularity

RussellThor's Shortform

Of Birds and Bees

RussellThor

Drone Wars Endgame

Beliefs and state of mind into 2025

Has the Symbol Grounding Problem just gone away?

Of Birds and Bees

RussellThor

RussellThor

Beliefs and position going into 2026

The anti-Kardashev scale is a better measure of civilizational power

Beliefs and state of mind into 2025

Dishbrain and implications.

Vision of a positive Singularity

RussellThor's Shortform

Of Birds and Bees

Main points

The Kardashev scale is not at all even in terms of difficulty

1. Summary

Note: Updates at end of article on 9 Dec 2025 to reflect recent changes

1. Introduction