Stan Pinsent

This was written in my role as researcher at CEARCH, but any opinions expressed are my own. I will check comments on the EA Forum version more often. This report uses population dynamics to explore the effects of a near-existential catastrophe on long-term value. Summary * Global population would probably...

TL;DR I explore the pros and cons of different approaches to estimation. In general I find that: * interval estimates are stronger than point estimates * the lognormal distribution is better for modelling unknowns than the normal distribution * the geometric mean is better than the arithmetic mean for building...