In the beginning of the universe, everything was equal. Then it exploded. Quantum inequalities became galactic. Stars coalesced, and beamed energy into the voids left behind. Between one hot young star and the void was a planet we now call Earth. On Earth, energy gradients drove chemical reactions. One reaction...
In a dry field, a band of feral children crowd around a dim glow. The fire is small, but it’s the first they’ve ever made. Until now, most doubted it possible. Fire, from rubbed sticks? But the flicker and crackle is proof. One child raises her voice. “This is dangerous....
(Crossposted to the EA forum) Abstract The linked paper is our submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and find it to be <1%. Specifically, we argue: * The bar is high: AGI as defined...