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Viliam
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9Viliam's Shortform
5y
239
Adele Lopez's Shortform
Viliam6h20

houses full of unemployed/underemployed people at the outskirts of the community

Oh, this wasn't even a part of my mental model! (I wonder what other things am I missing that are so obvious for the local people that no one even mentions them explicitly.)

My first reaction is a shocked disbelief, how can there be such a thing as "unemployed... rationalist... living in Bay Area", and even "houses full of them"...

This goes against my several assumptions such as "Bay Area is expensive", "most rationalists are software developers", "there is a shortage of software developers on the market", "there is a ton of software companies in Bay Area", and maybe even "rationalists are smart and help each other".

Here (around the Vienna community) I think everyone is either a student or employed. And if someone has a bad job, the group can brainstorm how to help them. (We had one guy who was a nurse, everyone told him that he should learn to code, he attended a 6-month online bootcamp and then got a well-paying software development job.) I am literally right now asking our group on Telegram to confirm or disconfirm this.

Thank you; to put it bluntly, I am no longer surprised that some of the people who can't hold a job would be deeply dysfunctional in other ways, too. The surprising part is that you consider them a part of the rationalist community. What did they do to deserve this honor? Memorized a few keywords? Impressed other people with skills unrelated to being able to keep a job? What the fuck is wrong with everyone? Is this a rationalist community or a psychotic homeless community or what?

...taking a few deep breaths...

I wonder which direction the causality goes. Is it "people who are stabilized in ways such as keeping a job, will remain sane" or rather "people who are sane, find it easier to get a job". The second option feels more intuitive to me. But of course I can imagine it being a spiral.

it seems helpful to me to spend some time naming common ground

Yes, but another option is to invite people whose way of life implies some common ground. Such as "the kind of people who could get a job if they wanted one".

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Kabir Kumar's Shortform
Viliam12h20

Sometimes the solution is just not to talk about certain topics. (But this requires cooperation from the other side.) For example, I don't discuss politics with my mother, because that would be predictably frustrating for both sides.

Maybe there is a good boundary for you, for example don't discuss your job? (Or stick to technicalities, such as salary.)

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Viliam's Shortform
Viliam1d30

Before we had LLMs, "sycophancy" was called "how to win friends and influence people".

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Tomás B.'s Shortform
Viliam1d30

I think this is very common.

It's one of the patterns mentioned in "Games People Play". For example, a socially shy woman could marry a controlling man who will keep her at home. Then it becomes "I don't have a problem with social situations, actually I would love to have a party, but... you know my husband".

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Kabir Kumar's Shortform
Viliam1d30

my dad doesn't believe in me, or really know anything about me. 

he thinks i'm a failure, chutiah, etc.

If he doesn't know anything about you, why would it matter what he thinks about you?

A part of becoming adult is realizing that your parents are just random people with no magical powers. Their opinions are just... their opinions. Could be right, could be wrong, could be anything. If someone who isn't your parent said the same thing, would you care?

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bfinn's Shortform
Viliam2d30

Out of curiosity I once joined an OVB training for financial advisors, but I concluded that there was no way to do this ethically (and make nonzero money). Long story short, your reward depends on the recommendations you give to your clients. The worse the advice, the greater the commission.

Of course no one tells you explicitly to give bad advice, but they discourage you from asking too many questions (the excuse is something like: if you keep doing this, one day you will understand), I think they won't give you the exact formula for calculating your reward, but they give you enough hints that selling life insurance is where most of the reward comes from. (The reward for everything else is a rounding error; a service you do only so that you can plausibly say that you are not an insurance salesman.) Like, it's okay to help people get mortgage, or even invest money in funds (note: their recommended funds always lose money, no matter which direction the economy goes)... but, you know, the really important thing is to "create a financial plan" for your client, which always includes pressing them to spend about 1/3 on their salary on life insurance, regardless of their circumstances. Because that is where your commission comes from.

A honest financial advisor, for starters, couldn't be paid by commission; that's already the opposite of alignment, because the worst products have highest commissions (basically they are paying you to help them scam people, by sharing a part of the profit), and the small commissions would result in very low hourly income for you (considering how much time would you spend talking to the client, how many clients would refuse your advice, etc.). A more honest model is to ignore the commission and just get paid by hour of consultation. There, at least you don't have an incentive to actively give bad advice. (You still don't have much of an incentive to give good advice, though.)

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Hospitalization: A Review
Viliam2d40

I would never have thought to make a LW post out of an experience like that.

Now my excuses for not blogging more frequently look even more pathetic.

Congratulations on surviving!

Reply1
Are We Leaving Literature To The Psychotic?
Viliam2d73

I was recently thinking about written text in general. In the past, when literacy wasn't a norm, only the smartest people were able to write a complete book. It doesn't necessarily mean that all the books were smart or good for humanity (e.g. Malleus Maleficarum), but at least they were biased in the direction of literate and educated people.

With social networks, it seems to be the other way round. Various kinds of crazy people produce the overwhelming majority of the text, simply because they can dedicate 16 hours a day to doing that, and they don't need to spend time thinking or researching, so even their output per minute is astronomical.

And I already worry about the impact on humans. I think the average human doesn't think too much, but rather emulates the perceived consensus of the environment. In the past, it mostly meant trying to emulate the smart people, even if unsuccessfully. Today, it means waves of contagious idiocy (which can be further weaponized by political actors who can employ an army of trolls... or, more recently, LLMs).

I actually have somewhat higher hopes for LLMs than humans. LLMs seem better at noticing patterns and correlations. They may figure out that one psychosis is related to another psychosis... so once you teach them "not that", the lesson may generalize. Better than for an average human, for which every new craziness seems to be a separate case. -- But this needs to be empirically verified.

Actually it would be cool if the LLMs could figure out the general factor of "rationality" as a pattern, and sort out the texts accordingly. (Unfortunately, five minutes later someone would ask the LLMs to generate some bullshit using the rationality pattern...)

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Lessons from the Mountains
Viliam2d20

I wouldn't recommend literally life-threatening things, but I think it is good to regularly volunteer for some kind of discomfort. The normal life then feels great. On the other hand, people who keep doing the same things over and over again, seem to get very sensitive about details.

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bfinn's Shortform
Viliam2d30

I 100% agree about financial advisors, but I am less sure about the doctors. (Not enough experience with the lawyers.) These are the differences between the professions that I think could be responsible:

Idealism: Some kids dream about becoming doctors because "helping other people heal" is intuitive. Even if they later get somewhat corrupt, at least they started from a good position. On the other hand, people doing finance are usually there specifically for the money. (Doing it for idealistic reasons is possible in theory, but requires an effective altruism kind of mindset, which is rare in the population.)

Temptation: How much money does a corrupt doctor make compared to a honest one? Twice as much, maybe. A honest financial advisor? Probably can't even find client. So possibly a few orders of magnitude difference.

Regulation: Depends on the country, but there are some checks on doctors, however dysfunctional those may be. For financial advisors, giving bad advice is the state of art; almost no one gives good advice.

Also, not sure why, but in my experience there seems to be a generational difference: older plumbers etc. are more likely to do a good job and ask for less money.

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89Halfhaven virtual blogger camp
12d
6
32Wikipedia, but written by AIs
1mo
9
36Learned helplessness about "teaching to the test"
4mo
16
27[Book Translation] Three Days in Dwarfland
5mo
6
43The first AI war will be in your computer
6mo
10
110Two hemispheres - I do not think it means what you think it means
8mo
21
26Trying to be rational for the wrong reasons
1y
9
32How unusual is the fact that there is no AI monopoly?
Q
1y
Q
15
37An anti-inductive sequence
1y
10
30Some comments on intelligence
1y
5
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