Superintelligence doesn't make human decisions unnecessary, any more than the laws of physics make them unnecessary, these are two instances of exactly the same free will vs. determinism puzzle. When something knows or carries out your actions, as the physical world does (even if that is the only way in...
There are many ways in which costs of compute get reported. A 1 GW datacenter site costs $10-15bn in the infrastructure (buildings, cooling, power), plus $30-35bn in compute hardware (servers, networking, labor), assuming Nvidia GPUs. Useful life of the infrastructure is about 10-15 years, and with debt financing a developer...
Permanent disempowerment without restrictions on quality of life achievable with relatively meager resources (and no extinction) seems to be a likely outcome for the future of humanity, if the current trajectory of frontier AI development continues and leads to AGI[1] shortly. This might happen as a result of at least...
Nick Bostrom defines existential risk as > Existential risk – One where an adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential. The problem with talking about "doom" is that many worlds that fall to existential risk but don't involve literal extinction are treated...
Currently, only 5 companies in the world have access to frontier AI training compute and are also pursuing development of AGI (Google DeepMind, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and Meta). This will still hold in 2026 for Google and OpenAI, and plausibly also for Anthropic, Meta, and xAI. Stance towards trying to...
Disempowerment is on the fence, gets interpreted as either implying human extinction or being a good place. "Doom" tends to be ambiguous between disempowerment and extinction, as well as about when that outcome must be gauged. And many people currently feel both disempowered and OK, so see eutopia as similar...
It'll take until ~2050 to repeat the level of scaling that pretraining compute is experiencing this decade, as increasing funding can't sustain the current pace beyond ~2029 if AI doesn't deliver a transformative commercial success by then. Natural text data will also run out around that time, and there are...