Transferring from "The Cameron Todd Willingham Test" a meta thread I began:
I don't think it is a good idea to invoke any sort of controversy without some specific novel point to make. I would not object were it just a thought experiment in an open thread, but good cause is necessary for a top-level post. As I said to Jack, I would hold top-level posts to a higher standard than "don't see the harm". By the novel-insight standard, "The Cameron Todd Willingham test" fails on two grounds:
The general idea is an obvious generalization of something already explored in some detail previously: examining the evidence associated with a criminal case and drawing an independent conclusion about the guilt or innocence of the defendant.
The post neither promises nor delivers substantial analysis on any subject.
It is my contention that what Kevin wrote does not show enough effort to justify a top-level post.
It is derivative of the Knox posts. But it asks us to do new things with our skills. In the Knox test the right answer was just that AK and RS have a very low P(Guilty) and RG has a high P(Guilty). This post asks us to compare the relative innocence of two people for two different crimes, with different circumstances. These exercises are important because right now all we can do is basically say "low" or "high" of "fifty-fifty". I mean, yeah, people gave numbers but I'm skeptical they mean that much. We need to get a better se...
This post is a place to discuss meta-level issues regarding Less Wrong. Previous thread.