What are the numbers that lead to your 1% estimate?
I will eventually sit down and make a back of the envelope calculation on this, but my current off-the-cuff estimate is about twenty (yes, twenty) orders of magnitude lower.
Mine was also just an off-the-cuff "guesstimate."
I am skeptical that it is possible to estimate the chances of cryonics working in a rigorous quantitative way. There's no way to know what technical hurdles are actually involved to make it work. How can you estimate your chances of success when you have no information about the difficulty of the problem?
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