Taken literally, the concept of "confidence in a probability" is incoherent.

Why? I thought the way Lumifer expressed it in terms of Bayesian hierarchical models was pretty coherent. It might be turtles all the way down as he says, and it might be hard to use it in a rigorous mathematical way, but at least it's coherent. (And useful, in my experience.)

Another concept is how much you think your probability estimate will change as you encounter new evidence.

This is pretty much what I meant in my original post by writing:

I usually think of t

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Open thread, 11-17 August 2014

by David_Gerard 1 min read11th Aug 2014274 comments

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