I think I disagree; care to make it precise enough to bet on? I'm expecting life still around, Earth the main population center, most humans not uploaded, some people dying of disease or old age or in wars, most people performing dispreferred activities in exchange for scarce resources at least a couple months in their lives, most children coming out of a biological parent and not allowed to take major decisions for themselves for at least a decade.

I'm offering $100 at even odds right now and will probably want to bet again in the next few years. I can giv... (read more)

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I'm expecting [...] some people dying of disease or old age or in wars

Care to explain why? You sound like you expect nanotech by then.

2Mitchell_Porter8yThat's a nice set of criteria by which to distinguish various futures (and futurists).
7Eliezer Yudkowsky8yAs wedifrid says, this is a no-brainer "accept" (including the purchasing-power-adjusted caveat). If you are inside the US and itemize deductions, please donate to SIAI, otherwise I'll accept via Paypal. Your implied annual interest rate assuming a 100% probability of winning is 0.7% (plus inflation adjustment). Please let me know whether you decide to go through with it; withdrawal is completely understandable - I have no particular desire for money at the cost of forcing someone else to go through with a bet they feel uncomfortable about. (Or rather, my desire for $100 is not this strong - I would probably find $100,000 much more tempting [http://www.gocomics.com/calvinandhobbes/1992/04/08].)

Rationality Quotes September 2012

by Jayson_Virissimo 1 min read3rd Sep 20121114 comments

7


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