The option I bought is up 700% since I bought them, implying that as of 2/10/2020 the market thought there was less than 1/8 chance things would be as bad as they are today. At least for me this puts a final nail in the coffin of EMH.

Chart for SPXW Apr 17 2020 3000 Put

Added on Mar 24: Just in case this thread goes viral at some point, to prevent a potential backlash against me or LW (due to being perceived as caring more about making money than saving lives), let me note that on Feb 8 I thought of and collected a number of ideas for preventing or mitigating the pandemic that I foresaw and subsequently sent them to several people working in pandemic preparedness, and followed up with several other ideas as I came across them.

Open & Welcome Thread - February 2020

by ryan_b 1 min read4th Feb 2020109 comments


If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it. (You can also make a shortform post)

And, if you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are welcome.

If you want to explore the community more, I recommend reading the Library, checking recent Curated posts, seeing if there are any meetups in your area, and checking out the Getting Started section of the LessWrong FAQ.

The Open Thread sequence is here.