That's why I threw in the disclaimer about needing some theory of self/identity. Possible future Phil's must bear a special relationship to the current Phil, which is not shared by all other future people--or else you lose egoism altogether when speaking about the future.
There are certainly some well thought out arguments that when thinking about your possible future, you're thinking about an entirely different person, or a variety of different possible people. But the more you go down that road, the less clear it is that classical decision theory has any rational claim on what you ought to do. The Ramsey/Von Neumann-Morgenstern framework tacitly requires that when a person acts so has to maximize his expected utility, he does so with the assumption that he his actually maximizing HIS expected utility, not someone else's.
This framework only makes sense if each possible person over which the utility function is defined is the agents future self, not another agent altogether. There needs to be some logical or physical relationship between the current agent and the class of future possible agent's such that their self/identity is maintained.
The less clear that the identity is maintained, the less clear that there is a rational maxim that the agent should maximize the future agent's utility...which among other things, is a philosopher's explanation for why we discount future value when performing actions, beyond what you get from simple time value of money.
So you still have the problem that the utility is, for instance, defined over all possible future Phil's utilities, not over all possible future people's. Possible Phil's are among the class of possible people (i presume), but not vice versa. So there is no logical relationship that a process that holds for possible phil's holds for possible future people.
The Ramsey/Von Neumann-Morgenstern framework tacitly requires that when a person acts so has to maximize his expected utility, he does so with the assumption that he his actually maximizing HIS expected utility, not someone else's.
Sure, and when you actually do the expected utility calculation, you hold the utility function constant, regardless of who specifically is theoretically acting. For example, I can maximize my expected utility by sabotaging a future evil self. To do this, I have to make an expected utility calculation involving a future self, b... (read more)
I said this in a comment on Real-life entropic weirdness, but it's getting off-topic there, so I'm posting it here.
My original writeup was confusing, because I used some non-standard terminology, and because I wasn't familiar with the crucial theorem. We cleared up the terminological confusion (thanks esp. to conchis and Vladimir Nesov), but the question remains. I rewrote the title yet again, and have here a restatement that I hope is clearer.
Some problems with average utilitarianism from the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy:
(If you assign different weights to the utilities of different people, we could probably get the same result by considering a person with weight W to be equivalent to W copies of a person with weight 1.)