In When Will AI Be Created?, I named four methods that might improve our forecasts of AI and other important technologies. Two of these methods were explicit quantification and leveraging aggregation, as exemplified by IARPA's ACE program, which aims to “dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of… forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many analysts.
GMU's DAGGRE program, one of five teams participating in ACE, recently announced a transition from geopolitical forecasting to science & technology forecasting:
DAGGRE will continue, but it will transition from geo-political forecasting to science and technology (S&T) forecasting to better use its combinatorial capabilities. We will have a brand new shiny, friendly and informative interface co-designed by Inkling Markets, opportunities for you to provide your own forecasting questions and more!
Another exciting development is that our S&T forecasting prediction market will be open to everyone in the world who is at least eighteen years of age. We’re going global!
If you want help improve humanity’s ability to forecast important technological developments like AI, please register for DAGGRE’s new S&T prediction website here.
Experienced PredictionBook veterans should do well.
Thanks for the shout! We're excited to move into Science & Tech which lets us be much more open about recruiting and sourcing. I really hope we get lots of people from LW.
As noted in my reply below, please use the new registration site (it has an atom logo, not a dagger). That will put you in the queue to be notified when we bring up the new site. The old site will go dark this Saturday, though we will still have occasional updates on the blog. The new site will be in testing over the summer (there is an email link if you're interested) and go live in the autumn.
Link:
Experienced PredictionBook veterans should do well.