I am very confused why you think this, just right after the success of Chat-GPT, where approximately the only difference from GPT-3 was the presence of RLHF.
I think the qualitative difference between the supervised tuning done in text-davinci-002 and the RLHF in text-davinci-003 is modest (e.g. I've seen head-to-head comparisons suggesting real but modest effects on similar tasks).
I think the much more important differences are:
I think the effect would have been very similar if it had been trained via supervised learning on good dialogs.
My current best guess is that Chat-GPT alone, via sparking an arms-race between Google and Microsoft, and by increasing OpenAIs valuation, should be modeled as the equivalent of something on the order of $10B of investment into AI capabilities research, completely in addition to the gains from GPT-3.
ChatGPT was impactful because of a big mismatch between people's perceptions of LM abilities and reality. That gap was going to get closed sooner or later (if not now then probably at the GPT-4 release). I think it's reasonable to think that this was a really destructive decision by OpenAI, but I don't think it's reasonable to treat it as a counterfactual $10B of investment.
I feel like the implicit model of the world you are using here is going to have effect sizes adding up to much more than the actual variance at stake. How impactful was the existence of OpenAI? Leadership decisions at Google? Microsoft's willingness to invest in OpenAI? The surprising effectiveness of transformers? Google originally deciding not to scale up LMs aggressively? The training of PaLM? The original GPT-3 release decisions? The fact that LM startups are raising at billion dollar valuations? The fact that LM applications are making hundreds of millions of dollars? These sources of variance all add up to 100% of the variance in AI investment, not 100000% of the variance.
I think it's a persistent difference between us that I tend to think fundamentals matter more and you tend to think things are more contingent and random. I tend to find your causal attribution implausible in other technologies as well as AI.
We also should not think this was overdetermined since 1.5 years passed since the release of GPT-3 and the release of Chat-GPT (with some updates to GPT-3 in the meantime, but my guess is no major ones)
There were significant capability increases between GPT-3 an GPT-3.5 (not to mention the introduction of the earlier InstructGPT training).
The crux was importantly not that other people would do the same work anyways, since people at the same time also argued that their work on RLHF was counterfactually relevant and that it's pretty plausible or likely that the work would otherwise not happen. I've had a few of these conversations with you as well (though in aggregate not a lot) and your take at the time was (IIRC) that it seemed quite unlikely that RLHF would have as big of an effect as it did have in the case of Chat-GPT (mostly via an efficiency argument that if that was the case, more capabilities-oriented people would work on it, and since they weren't it likely isn't a commercialization bottleneck), and so I do feel a bit like I want to call you out on that, though I might also be misremembering the details (some of this was online, so might be worth going back through our comment histories).
My position was and is:
I'm pretty skeptical that no one else would do RLHF. For ChatGPT in particular, I think it was built by John Schulman's team, and John is: (i) focused on RL, (ii) pivoted to LMs after the success of GPT-3 relative to non-LM models and would have done so without RLHF, (iii) has a similar aesthetic and would pretty obviously do this or something else equally good.
I think the most likely world where people don't adopt RLHF is one where other hackier alternatives work just as well. And it won't be from no one trying.
I think the big argument against impact I find most compelling is: most follow-up work to RLHF didn't work that well for GPT-3 and seem to have started working after that, so you could have just waited until people would do it anyway and in the interim focused on approaches that work better at smaller scale. I think the big miscalculation here was that I expected debate/decomposition stuff would start working interestingly with curie-sized models but was off by about 2 orders of magnitude.
I think the big argument for negative impact comes from safety-motivated folk being involved in training language models, not the RLHF stuff. I also disagree with the rationalists about their evaluations of pretty much everything, but that one feels like a more interesting disagreement.
In this post I’m going to describe my basic justification for working on RLHF in 2017-2020, which I still stand behind. I’ll discuss various arguments that RLHF research had an overall negative impact and explain why I don’t find them persuasive.
I'll also clarify that I don't think research on RLHF is automatically net positive; alignment research should address real alignment problems, and we should reject a vague association between "RLHF progress" and "alignment progress."
Background on my involvement in RLHF work
Here are some background views about alignment I held in 2015 and still hold today. I expect disagreements about RLHF will come down to disagreements about this background:
In order to overcome the fundamental difficulties with RLHF, I have long been interested in techniques like iterated amplification and adversarial training. However, prior to 2017 most researchers I talked to in ML (and many researchers in alignment) thought that the basic strategy of training AI with expensive human evaluations was impractical for more boring reasons and so weren't interested in these difficulties. On top of that, we obviously weren’t able to actually implement anything more fancy than RLHF since all of these methods involve learning from expensive feedback. I worked on RLHF work to try to facilitate and motivate work on fixes.
The history of my involvement:
The case for a positive impact
Overall, I think that early work on RLHF had significant value:
The case for a negative impact
People in the safety community make some arguments that research on RLHF has costs larger than these benefits. I don’t currently find these arguments persuasive:
Overall, I think it was valuable to use RLHF to fix the kind of basic alignment problems that are ubiquitous with pre-trained models. I think it has had a real impact facilitating work on more fundamental challenges, and helped move the community one step closer towards the kind of alignment solutions I expect to ultimately be successful.
Future work
I remain excited about "straightforward" approaches to improving RLHF, like devising better feedback (using combinations of human and AI work) and improving robustness by adversarial training. I think this work will continue to make ML systems more useful in practice, and so will be subject to the same kinds of objections as above. I still tentatively think this work is net positive and don't find arguments against persuasive.
I think this follow-up research will also not need to solve the “fundamentally confusing” problems for a long time, but that solving tractable problems gives you a good chance of aligning modestly superhuman AI and facilitates future work on the remaining more challenging problems.
That said, I don’t think that improving or studying RLHF is automatically “alignment” or necessarily net positive. Research should be justified by an argument that it actually helps address important failures. Here are some types of work in this space that I’m particularly excited about:
I would wildly guess that my involvement in RLHF and early language model training at OpenAI from 2017-2020 put me in the top 100 people accelerating AI progress but not in the top 10; I'd wildly guess that I accelerated progress by a few tenths of a percent during this period, and perhaps cut down timelines to powerful AI by a few days. I think there's room for debate one way or the other on that.
In some sense this is a big acceleration and it's wrong to write it off as "not that important." But I think accelerating a ChatGPT-style wakeup by a week is not a major cost (in addition to being plausibly positive, there just wasn't that much AI-reducing-activity happening per week in the world of 2018).
I also continue to think that RLHF is great, but that people overestimate (and misunderstand in all kinds of wild directions) the practical impact that it actually has on system behavior relative to the counterfactual training techniques.
(I added this footnote long after the post was written, reacting to different people interpreting the post in very different ways, e.g. Oliver's comments below and Michael Nielsen's here.)