Note on unusual formatting: Sentences are split into lines so you can parse parts precisely.
Also called an 'Availability cascade', a self-reinforcing process in which a collective belief gains more and more plausibility through its increasing repetition in public discourse (or "repeat something long enough and it will become true").
Insofar as nearly all of the published literature on risk assessment assumes the same argument form, outline, logic, etc, there is also established a kind of "mono-culture". As with any other sort of mono-culture in nature, the mere fact of that being that way ensures that there are additional issues introduced: a kind of brittleness and fragility. Anything which impacts the validity and applicability of the single argument form, will therefore also have the undesirable effect of "undoing" and invalidating far too large a proportion of the published risk assessments, in far too many critical areas. With something as critically important as a category 1 or 2 extinction risk, much more diversity of independent and overlapping argument forms is needed and called for, particularly in regard to general context considerations and assumptions.
- link Wikipedia: Mere exposure effect - an item on Forrest Landry's compiled list of biases in evaluating extinction risks.
Example of a statement with a mere exposure effect:
“aligning AGI is possible in principle”
A paper that describes a risk-assessment monoculture in evaluating extinction risks: Democratising Risk.