Decision theory and metaphysics

This sequence represents my personal take on how to properly make sense of a lot of LessWrong-style decision theory.

First, I argue that in practice, all of its recommendations are more naturally seen as arising from a very mundane and uncontroversial framework I call "commitment theory". So that should be the starting point of the discussion. Then, I make some sweeping sociological points and exhort people to spend more time talking about metaphysics - since the full vision of LessWrong-style decision theory does not make sense without metaphysical commitments. Finally, in a stunning twist, I do it myself and argue that the metaphysics you need actually are just... true.

Most of this is more synthesis and exegesis than novel thinking, and will be obvious to many experts.