A story is never a rational attempt at analysis, not even with the most diligent science fiction writers, because stories don't use probability distributions.

A Yudkowsky blog post is rarely a rational attempt at analysis, because his blog posts rarely use probability distributions.

In this particular post, note that 100% of the probability distributions stated are completely fictional. Yudkowsky has not provided any estimate of the likelihood of people committing this fallacy or the costs associated with such instances.

A Yudkowsky blog post is

rarelya rational attempt at analysis, because his blog posts rarely use probability distributions.In this particular post, note that 100% of the probability distributions stated are completely fictional. Yudkowsky has not provided any estimate of the likelihood of people committing this fallacy or the costs associated with such instances.