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Open Thread Feb 22 - Feb 28, 2016
_rpd10y-40

Apparently being a postman in the 60s and having a good Johnny Cash impression worked out well ...

http://infamoustribune.com/dna-tests-prove-retired-postman-1300-illegimitate-children/

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If there IS alien super-inteligence in our own galaxy, then what it could be like?
_rpd10y10

Or we are an experiment (natural or artificial) that yields optimal information when unmanipulated or manipulated imperceptibly (from our point of view).

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Open Thread Feb 16 - Feb 23, 2016
_rpd10y10

I really like this distinction. The closest I've seen is discussion of existential risk from a non-anthropocentric perspective. I suppose the neologism would be panexistential risk.

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If there was one element of statistical literacy that you could magically implant in every head, what would it be?
_rpd10y50

The desire to know error estimates and confidence levels around assertions and figures, or better yet, probability mass curves. And a default attitude of skepticism towards assertions and figures when they are not provided.

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Where does our community disagree about meaningful issues?
_rpd10y10

Would you support a law to stop them?

Wiki says that desomorphine has been a Schedule 1 controlled substance in the US since 1936, shortly after its discovery. Mere possession is illegal, much less use.

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Where does our community disagree about meaningful issues?
_rpd10y20

predict with high confidence a Republican win

Odd since most prediction markets have a 60/40 split in favor of a Democrat winning the US presidency.

E.g., https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres16_Quotes.html

Sanders vs. Trump.

The polls have Sanders ahead in this particular matchup ...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html

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Open Thread, Feb 8 - Feb 15, 2016
_rpd10y00

"Prediction market". The DPRs implement some sort of internal currency (which, thanks to blockchains, is fairly easy), and make bets, receiving rewards for accurate predictions.

Taking this a little further, the final prediction can be a weighted combination of the individual predictions, with the weights corresponding to historical or expected accuracy.

However different individuals will likely specialize to be more accurate with regard to different cognitive tasks (in fact, you may wish to set up the reward economy to encourage such specialization), so that the set of weights will vary by cognitive task, or more generally become a weighting function if you can define some sort of sensible topology for the cognitive task space.

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