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Book Analysis: New Thrawn Trilogy

This reminds me of the new Foundation television series, where the show-makers are required to show us supersmart people- Hari Seldon and his protege can literally predict the grand movements of society- and they do it by waving around CGI dots. I think its Type-2 geniusing.

Covid 7/1: Don’t Panic

Good call out. I don't know how contagious Covid/Delta is with children, but my intuition is that it is less contagious, which means your clarification is good news. 

Covid 7/1: Don’t Panic

The UK still has vaccination rates just around 50%, and we can assume that they focused on the elderly first. The control system is first and foremost about preventing hospitals from being swamped and causing politicians to have a bad press day, so with most of the most likely to die off the table, case counts and hospitalization counts will have to be much higher. 

Since May, the UK has seen its cases go up ~7x, its hospitalizations go up ~2x, and deaths hover around the same level (maybe they've gone 2x? hard to tell). To have US 2020 Summer Surge levels of death, their death rate would have to go up 13x, and their case rate would presumably have to go up 26x. 

Given that Delta looks like it is going exponential in the UK, and it is doubling between 1-2 weeks, it would be at that high case count by August. However, that rate would be multiple times higher than the UK's existing peak. 

Is that worrying? 

Changing my life in 2021, halfway through

For personal finance, I have found and recommend reddit's /r/personalfinance to be a great boon. Their flowchart is essentially "correct". 

[Prediction] What war between the USA and China would look like in 2050

My initial reaction to this comment was that tungsten rods are science fiction and that we don't have the capabilities or willingness to put the rods in space... but it now occurs to me that Starship makes the possibility of tungsten rods much more believable. 

We need a career path for invention

Jason does have a post where he briefly tackles the low-hanging fruit hypothesis [here]. It isn't 100% compelling, but the idea is that there are "multiple orchards" and we go through one after another. The conceit doesn't include the possibility of "barren earth orchards" though. 

We need a career path for invention

I definitely agree that the idea of unconstrained "invention" is not well supported in society, but the hypothesis makes me go "huh?"

Science discovers new knowledge; invention creates useful machines, chemicals, processes, or other products; and business produces and distributes these products in a scalable, self-sustaining way.

Is the place you use the word "invention" not engineering? For most types of engineering, undergrad students are taught science for two years (it is new knowledge to them), they're taught how to usefully apply that knowledge for a year and a half, and then they have a final semester or two explaining how that knowledge can be used to achieve some business goals. 

In other words, "career that applies scientific knowledge to make up stuff" seems to be engineers. 

When I ctrl+f-replace "inventors" with "engineers" in my head, I personally see your career path theory making more sense given that engineers do have a career path, which is mostly to become well-degreed technicians, financiers, or tenture-track-warriors. They ought to becoming inventors, but the existing paths divert them.

Corporate research is largely not as ambitious and long-term as it used to be.

A large part of this may be that there is increasing pressure on CEOs to focus on short-term earnings at the expense of long term earnings. 

Facebook is Simulacra Level 3, Andreessen is Level 4

I like the note that titles are a "nominally-infinite resource" because there is a limit to them. Namely, they're sticky. With Zuckerberg's org, if he really, really, really needs to inflate a person's title, he can do it. He has the option to pull an Andreessen if he needs to, but the opposite isn't true. 

[Book Review] Destiny Disrupted

Destiny Disrupted was critical history reading for me, and helped break me out of a Eurocentric viewing of the world before college. I've tried very, very hard to find a history book from Chinese, Russian, or Indian authors that has the same insider's point of view but written in accessible, plain English. 

Aside from wanting to read similar books about other cultures/civilizations, I am reminded that it seemed a bit steeped in "post-9/11ism". 

How to Write Like Kaj Sotala

Are there examples of Kaj's writing that you find particularly salient/useful? 

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