AaronF

If AI is giving us this very Humane writing, I am impressed; very well written, so Kudos. "...trying to reconstruct Herodotus from a copy that fell into a blender..." Lol 

All great points. But that is yesterdays question; tomorrows question is when people deliberately use the ambiguity (to the advantage of violence) to get elected mayor or congress, in the name of religion that is explicitly and in practice, anti-religious freedom. [They also use the ambiguity of words and law, to take away arms of defense]. 

We shall see which way the western world wants to go. Though I imagine that the Dual-sovereignty of the US -Fed and State- will start to clash more heavily. The dissonance will increase. Our agreement is crumbling ... (read more)

Well-said.

To add to comment: 

OP: "Some examples to illustrate the absurdity of this logic: Mammals live outdoors; therefore, homelessness is good."

A positive statement would be that, it may be an evolutionary 'good' even if distasteful. An example might be that homelessness people may have more partners than a high IQ autist that has a mansion. Or we can say, all else being equal, it is healthier for humans to be outside more, much more than in the modern world. Designed housing and modern urban systems need to take this into account.

OP: "Animals are ... (read more)

Missed the forest for the trees. Supply is short, and lots of government regulations distort the market (mainly risk).  Federal US has been chronically underperforming with regards to the supply of housing. Extra distortions on the margins in NYC. 

Easily? Those weren't arms races; and I'd argue that genetic engineering issue is completely based on the inherent limitation and difficulty of the technology; Not an outside agreement to cull the arms-race. Leaded gasoline would harm the individual nations, even without an agreement. 

Is there any agreement where a country has agreed to cutting their own horns? (Could argue Russia-US missile agreement; which has been a strategic disaster re China, though it is in quantity not a quality agreement). 

I think your argument about the impact and abilit... (read more)

"Likewise, risks from competing nation states (e.g China) could be mitigated via existing intentional collaboration strategies - nuclear proliferation management techniques like inspections & intelligence agencies keeping check on each other could feasibly serve as a means for the world to prevent the development of AI. "

This is a word salad that has zero empirical or theoretical foundation. Gunpowder, greenhouse gases, virus pathology and many other fields have shown this to be empirically false. We'd all be better off is there wasn't arms races and runaway selection (though would we have evolved in the first place?), but denying this fact gets us nowhere. 

Fair. I removed it. 

REMOVED

REMOVED

REMOVED

REMOVED

REMOVED

REMOVED

REMOVED

 

REMOVED

Here is Ole Peters: [Puzzle] "Voluntary insurance contracts constitute a puzzle because they increase the expectation value of one party’s wealth, whereas both parties must sign for such contracts to exist [Answer]: Time averages and expectation values differ because wealth changes are non-ergodic." 

Peters again: "Conceptually, its power derives from a new notion of rationality. Many reasonable models of wealth are non-stationary processes. Observables representing wealth then do not have the ergodic property of Section I, and therefore rationality mu... (read more)

My basic and primitive understanding (From Taleb Etc.) is that there are a few ideas that are important; such as ergodicity; at least when trading in a complex market and why you should follow Kelly criterion. Also, fat tails etc. 

But when I did the research like you, it seemed quite sparse.