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A combination dial often has a tolerance of 2 in either direction. 20-45-35 will open a lock set to 22-33-44.

I certainly hope not! I think you intended 20-35-45 for the first or 22-44-33 for the second.

<i>But spinning a hard drive can move things just outside the computer, or just outside the room, by whole neutron diameters</i>

Not long ago, when hard drives were much larger, programmers could make them inch across the floor; they would even race each other. <a href="http://catb.org/~esr/jargon/...(read more)

Eliezer is certainly correct that our real goal is to make optimal decisions and perform optimal actions, regardless of how different they are from those of the herd. But that doesn't mean we should <em>ignore</em> information about our conformity or non-conformity. It's often important.

Consider...(read more)

What can we do about this? Can we reduce the effects of contamination by consciously avoiding contaminating input before making an important decision? Or does consciously avoiding it contaminate us?

Oops, as a correction to my previous comment, that should be "ground radars." "Ground satellites" is just an oxymoron.

<i>"He sent messages declaring the launch detection a false alarm, based solely on his personal belief that the US did not seem likely to start an attack using only five missiles."</i>

According to the Wikipedia article, Petrov claimed that he had other reasons for believing it was false alarm: lac...(read more)

Oops, that should be "non-falsifiability," not "non-falsification."

Interesting post. It strikes me that semantic stopsigns join adoration of mystery and non-falsification as survival tricks acquired by story memes when curiosity -- and other stories -- threatened their existence.