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Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT

1) What error bars? Are you talking about the relative uncertainty of the priors? Because it's assumed that these prior are only my best estimate. You're not saying anything new here.

2) "how hot/successful she is relative to you": I haven't heard of any studies that positively correlate physical appearance and financial success with reduced time to get over a long-term relationship. I admit that it's *possible* that there's a connection, but as of yet I haven't seen any evidence that would persuade me to include it.

3) "if she broke up with you she has likely wanted to do better for some time." Again, you're making unjustified claims with no evidence to support them.

"The usual post-breakup advice is to focus on your own goals for awhile."

Now this I agree with.

Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT

What's an Open Thread and why would this belong there?

Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT

Ah. Sorry I didn't make that clear.

Yeah, that particular prior is low at least partly because of my wishful thinking.

Not that it seems to have helped. =/

Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT

She almost never missed my calls.

Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT

I don't trust my accuracy of measurement from the time we broke up until now. The relationship between us has been...uncertain, and her ignoring my calls is the first behavioral cue I can point to and say "Okay, that means there's a good chance she's over me."

Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT

And remember that the "probability that she's over me," should be probability that she got over you since the last time you checked.

Wouldn't that be redundant?

Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT

She would always get back to me within a short amount of time when she found out she missed my call. The only times that hasn't happened was when the phone glitched and she was unaware that I'd tried to contact her.

If anything, 10% is a little high.

That last one was meant as in "he's a player that just met her and so am I."