Excessive EDA Effortposting

Responses to your differences:

.I hear you, but R has enough fully-automated testing tools that it's much simpler for me to just run the appropriate test and see what pops out the other end. (Also, THANK YOU for mentioning Chebyshev, I can't believe I'd never heard of that inequality before and it's EXACTLY my kind of thing)

.I think (?) you're operating on the wrong level of meta here. A t-test uses both the mean and the variance of the distribution(s) you feed it, and that's true whether or not it's being used to test a correlation. The CLT will not save us, because the single (admittedly gaussian-distributed) datapoint representing the mean has a variance of zero. (Something I could have done - in fact, something I remember doing much earlier in my career, back when I was better at identifying problems than finding expedient solutions - was to group not-necessarily-normal datapoints together into batches of about twenty, take the averages per-batch, and then t-test the lists of those: it was a ridiculous waste of statistical power, but it was valid!)

.That's an excellent idea. My excuse for not doing that is that I was prioritising pointedly-not-getting-things-wrong over actually-getting-things-right; my reason is that I just didn't think of it and I'm too lazy (and data-purist) to go back and try that now.

The dataset is, at time of writing, still up at https://gist.github.com/ncase/74ae97cb74893a0c540274b44f550503. I'd love to see what you throw at it.

ProbDef: a game about probability and inference

Thanks for the detailed feedback! You should be pleased to know the next iteration will make the utility of captured mines a lot more obvious, and do so a lot earlier (this is a pretty common complaint). Also, if you liked keeping track of decoys in your head, I should probably make sure you know you can turn the autocalc off in the Options menu & get the same sort of experience with the Bayesian levels.

ProbDef: a game about probability and inference

Please don't take this the wrong way, but: if you liked it, why did you stop playing?

I ask because this is a recurring theme I've noticed: people saying it's fun & well-put-together (and appearing to mean it), but that they're not motivated to keep going. Or, in other words, that it's engaging but not compelling.

I'm pretty sure it comes down to the absence of story, context and overarching goals. But if the cause of this effect is something different, I really want to know.

ProbDef: a game about probability and inference

Good catch! I have a bunch of minor tweaks I want to make to this version of the game before moving on, I'll add that to it.