Adele Lopez

Comments

Manifesto of the Silent Minority

The main lesson I'm getting from this is that it's generally good that people don't feel comfortable expressing these sorts of opinions.

Problems Involving Abstraction?

Not quite sure how specifically this connects, but I think you would appreciate seeing it.

As a good example of the kind of gains we can get from abstraction, see this exposition of the HashLife algorithm, used to (perfectly) simulate Conway's Game of Life at insane scales.

Earlier I mentioned I would run some nontrivial patterns for trillions of generations. Even just counting to a trillion takes a fair amount of time for a modern CPU; yet HashLife can run the breeder to one trillion generations, and print its resulting population of 1,302,083,334,180,208,337,404 in less than a second.

Problems Involving Abstraction?

Entropy and temperature inherently require the abstraction of macrostates from microstates. Recommend reading this: http://www.av8n.com/physics/thermo/entropy.html if you haven't seen this before (or just want an unconfused explanation).

It's hard to use utility maximization to justify creating new sentient beings

I don't know why the trade-off between population-size and average utility feels like it needs to be a mathematically justified, that function seems to be as much determined by arbitrary evolutionary selection as the rest of our utility functions.

Inaccessible finely tuned RNG in humans?

My method for doing this is to imagine a spinner partitioned into certain sections (like a pie chart of the intended distribution), and then imagine spinning it rapidly and watching it slow down and seeing where it lands. I don't know how well this actually works, but I adopted it after seeing a poll like the ones you linked asking people to choose based on this method, which ended up being very close. It's does take a decent amount of mental effort, as well as a couple seconds for each round -- I'd expect any method that works to have these properties.

Taking vitamin D3 with K2 in the morning

Generally, it's a good idea to listen to your body. Insomnia can be caused by vitamin D doses that are too high for you, so you may want to investigate or ask a doctor about that possibility.

The rationalist community's location problem

Lot's of people in the community have seasonal affective disorder (see e.g. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hC2NFsuf5anuGadFm/how-to-build-a-lumenator), so that would lead me to expect people would want to live in places with more sunlight, which tend to not have cold weather.

What happens if you drink acetone?

I think you missed the most interesting effect, which is that ingesting it would put you into some sort of ketosis or at higher levels: ketoacidosis.

Escalation Outside the System

On one hand, I think you're mostly right about this not being an actual proposal, but I also think that people saying stuff like this would (and will) use guillotines if/when they have the opportunity and think they can get away with it.

Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines

That 30% where we get our shit together seems wildly optimistic to me!

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