Komponisto I have read your account and interpretations of the evidence, and am refreshed and somewhat relieved to finally find some sense of perspective regarding the events. I was troubled by the outcome of the trial, in my mind the events as they were presented simply did not correlate together. When events are correctly modelled, all additional evidence reinforces the hypothesis. Your Bayesian analysis brought a perspective to the likelihood of the various evidence aspects. The prosecutors presentation of the facts was full of inconsistencies. In addition perspective was not used in evaluating the various items of evidence against likely events. By creating such a fantastical scenario of an extreme sexual it seems the prosecution managed to distract the jury away from their normal perception of what is likely or otherwise to have happened. Note I am not implying such extreme acts of sexual behaviour are that uncommon, however I believe that amongst 20 year old female exchange students with normal family backgrounds, such extreme sexual practices are so rare as to be nonexistent. If one takes this view point and only then looks for evidence to support an event with such a high degree of improbability, then one needs to look for evidence that supports the claim far beyond that of any reasonable doubt. Certainly the circumstantial evidence presented to date is far too insufficient to outweigh this.
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Komponisto I have read your account and interpretations of the evidence, and am refreshed and somewhat relieved to finally find some sense of perspective regarding the events. I was troubled by the outcome of the trial, in my mind the events as they were presented simply did not correlate together. When events are correctly modelled, all additional evidence reinforces the hypothesis. Your Bayesian analysis brought a perspective to the likelihood of the various evidence aspects. The prosecutors presentation of the facts was full of inconsistencies. In addition perspective was not used in evaluating the various items of evidence against likely events. By creating such a fantastical scenario of an extreme sexual it seems the prosecution managed to distract the jury away from their normal perception of what is likely or otherwise to have happened. Note I am not implying such extreme acts of sexual behaviour are that uncommon, however I believe that amongst 20 year old female exchange students with normal family backgrounds, such extreme sexual practices are so rare as to be nonexistent. If one takes this view point and only then looks for evidence to support an event with such a high degree of improbability, then one needs to look for evidence that supports the claim far beyond that of any reasonable doubt. Certainly the circumstantial evidence presented to date is far too insufficient to outweigh this.