Ŀady Jade Beacham


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I have often remarked "If we had viable third parties in this country, and there was a party that held no policy positions whatsoever but just vowed to make government more efficient, I would vote for them every time".  I feel that this is the forgotten element in so many things.  We argue between American health-insurance healthcare and single-payer healthcare, but I believe both systems could be really good if they were run efficiently, and both systems could be horrific abominations if they are run inefficiently.  

I really wish politicians would establish clear KPIs and track their progress against those KPIs.  Even if the KPIs change from administration to administration, having clear goals and optimizing for them would be a huge benefit. 

If you are going to donate them I would suggest local hospitals or urgent cares might put them to best use.

I wish we had managed to get some hand sanitizer, we only managed to find travel sized ones before shtf.

Do you expect transmission to occur within your house? From a guest? Or at a grocery store or outside contact? Seems like it would only help in the in-house case. I expect this to be pretty far down the list of useful interventions

Household transmission In China, human-to-human transmission of the COVID-19 virus is largely occurring in families. The Joint Mission received detailed information from the investigation of clusters and some household transmission studies, which are ongoing in a number of Provinces. Among 344 clusters involving 1308 cases (out of a total 1836 cases reported) in Guangdong Province and Sichuan Province, most clusters (78%-85%) have occurred in families. Household transmission studies are currently underway, but preliminary studies ongoing in Guangdong estimate the secondary attack rate in households ranges from 3-10%.

From the WHO report on China, most infection clusters they found were family clusters. This may be applicable to your thinking on this.

Maybe it's optimistic, but in my model of the world, there are islands of competence within the intelligence community which do things like this.

For me, that fits my model of what the US intelligence agencies used to do during the cold war times, and we have unclassified documents about proactive, unethical experimentation they did - like Operation Sea Spray and MK Ultra. I don't know if the 2020 US intelligence community is up to the same task. I get the impression that capability and competence have fallen there, although it's hard to know since so much is classified. But judging by the fact that we have had several elections disrupted by pretty predictable cyberattacks without visible countermeasures, my estimation of their competence has fallen.

On the other hand, here's an article about a UK laboratory infecting people with a non-covid coronavirus to help with vaccine research.

I bought soylent along with rice, beans, dried mushrooms, dried vegetables, cured sausage, etc. I think soylent is useful but I wouldn't want to consist on it fully.

Thank you for your input. I would like to go but I want to bring my partner with me and she is against it, I think because it feels extreme. My brother thinks it would be dangerous to my parents to travel to them, my father thinks it is inevitable to get the virus everywhere so it would be useless to travel to them. It feels like each is uncomfortable with taking action and justifying that feeling with a different faux-logical screen.

Sigh. I'd like to go and I'll work on convincing my partner. We went out for dinner today which strengthens my suspicion that as long as we remain here we won't ever really isolate. My parents have said that I am welcome to come and quarantine in the in-law unit. Thanks for your advice.

EDIT: My partner started to cough, which increased my estimation that we might be incubating it. Still very low chance but it made bringing it home to my parents a more real possibility. I decided to stay and risk it in the city

I discovered a way to practice this recently, I was drawing with vine charcoal, which is dark and very dusty, and I got dark dust all over my hands. Then I touched my face inadvertantly and I could see in the mirror where I had touched.

Later I tried to wash it off and was able to wash it off only when I really focused on how I moved my hands in order to scrub any area. The entire thing felt like good practice with hand higene. So to practice this, improvise a colored dust - charcoal, ash etc, and practice washing hands and not touching face.

The aim of your quarantine procedure and other actions should be to delay your exposure to coronavirus until after the peak has passed. It is unlikely to be possible to delay it indefinitely, especially if we are going to have a return to normalcy.

With every epidemic there is likely to be a peak - a period of exponential growth, climaxing in a peak and then a slowdown. Your goal should be to get exposed after the peak period. During the peak, medical supplies will be stretched very thin and hospitals may be overflowing. After the peak, medical professionals have a lot of experience dealing with the disease and we will know the landscape of outcomes and treatments. As long as the medical systems are not destroyed by the virus, that may be the best time to get it.

I modeled a logistic growth equations for a population of 7 million (bay area) and different estimates of the doubling rate I found in the literature - for a doubling rate of every 3 days, the peak seems to come after about 2 months from initial exposure. For a doubling rate of every 7 days, the peak comes about 4 months after initial exposure. Since the virus has likely been circulating for several weeks already, we can predict the peak in the bay area is 1-3 months out. How it actually plays out will vary a lot based on containment measures, public events, lifestyle of the populace, etc.

This is all extremely speculative but gives me a goal to shoot for - before I was trying to figure out what is the goal of quarantine for myself, if I was ever going to rejoin society. Now I have a model for why I should avoid getting it.

So the SARS virus exhibits, at least in the lab, Antibody Dependent Enhancement which is what can allow a virus to affect you multiple times. Here's a paper on it. Since COVID-19 is related to SARS it seems plausible the reports of reinfection are real. I don't understand this enough to say much more about it.

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