As a Chinese, I would like to share the views of people around me as a comparison. The views I obtained come from students at Chinese universities, Chinese friends of the same age, and Chinese international students in Western countries. The sample size is approximately ten people. Overall, they all use AI, but they don't spend much on it and don't have deep usage experience.
Overall attitude towards AI: More than half of the people have a positive view of AI. The main concern is the impact on jobs. It is notable that some of these concerns coexist with opt... (read more)
Regarding the 16% probability of an ASI occurring in 2040 in Outcome 4, I have a few questions.
First, the numerical relationship: given the condition that an ASI occurs in 2040, the probability of multilateral joint development is higher than the combined probability of the US (8%) and China (6%). In other words, in this scenario, it is the most likely form of successful alignment. By your definition, Outcome 4 requires not only international oversight, but also that the final system aligns with values recognized by the majority of participating parties. ... (read more)