So I'm one of the rate limited users. I suspect it's because I made a bad early April fools joke about a WorldsEnd movement that would encourage people to maximise utility over the next 25 years instead of pursuing long term goals for humanity like alignment. Made some people upset and it hit me that this site doesn't really have the right culture for those kinds of jokes. I apologise and don't contest being rate limited.

Just this once I promise

See my other comment on how this is just a shitpost.

Also humans dont base their decisions on raw expected value calculations. Almost everyone would take 1 million over a 0.1% chance of 10 billion though the expected value of the latter is higher (pascals mugging) 

Early april fools joke. I dont seriously believe this. 

It was originally intended as an april fools joke lol. This isnt a serious movement but it does reflect a little bit of my hopelessness of ai alignment working 

AI + Humans would just eventually give rise to AGI anyway so I dont see the distinction people try to make here.

Yh I dont get it either. From what I can tell the best Chinese labs arent even as good as the second tier American labs. The only way I see it happening is if the CCP actively try to steal it.

Why do you have 15% for 2024 and only an additional 15 for 2025.

Do you really think there's a 15% chance of AGI this year ?

you would have to have ridiculous ai timelines for it to be closer than robotaxis. Closer than 2027?

shutting down GPU production was never in the Overton window anyway. This makes little difference. Even if further scaling isnt needed most people cant afford the 100M spent on gpt4.