We are planning to release blog posts properly arguing the case for this kind of work in the future. tl;dr A core hope for managing AI risks is that AIs will help us understand the situation, plan for what lies ahead, and develop mitigations. Many tasks AIs would have to...
We’ve significantly upgraded our timelines and takeoff model! It predicts when AIs will reach key capability milestones: for example, Automated Coder / AC (full automation of coding) and superintelligence / ASI (much better than the best humans at virtually all cognitive tasks). This post will briefly explain how the model...
Cross-posted from the AI Futures Project Substack. This post outlines a concrete scenario for how takeover by an AI company CEO might go, which I developed during MATS with the AI Futures Project. It represents one plausible story among a few that seem roughly equally likely to me. I’m interested...