We’ve significantly upgraded our timelines and takeoff model! It predicts when AIs will reach key capability milestones: for example, Automated Coder / AC (full automation of coding) and superintelligence / ASI (much better than the best humans at virtually all cognitive tasks). This post will briefly explain how the model...
Cross-posted from the AI Futures Project Substack. This post outlines a concrete scenario for how takeover by an AI company CEO might go, which I developed during MATS with the AI Futures Project. It represents one plausible story among a few that seem roughly equally likely to me. I’m interested...
We’ve significantly upgraded our timelines and takeoff model! It predicts when AIs will reach key capability milestones: for example, Automated Coder / AC (full automation of coding) and superintelligence / ASI (much better than the best humans at virtually all cognitive tasks). This post will briefly explain how the model works, present our timelines and takeoff forecasts, and compare it to our previous (AI 2027) models (spoiler: the AI Futures Model predicts longer timelines to full coding automation than our previous model by about 3-5 years, in significant part due to being less bullish on pre-full-automation AI R&D speedups). Added Jan 2026: see here for clarifications regarding how our forecasts have changed... (read 7337 more words →)
In my scenario I was imagining Agent-5 to be superhuman at politics. But I tentatively think [just top-human at politics + being extremely well-informed about what every human actor wants and knows + being able to have a coordinated influence on all these human actors] already has a big shot at leading to the story’s events.
It’s also important that the CEO starts from a relative position of power and prestige, and is not some random guy. He’s the kind of person who could rise to power the way he does (at least at first) if he was lucky and had political acumen. Maybe I should have emphasized this point more in the scenario.
Here are some more thoughts on a superintelligence-run persuasion campaign:
Cross-posted from the AI Futures Project Substack. This post outlines a concrete scenario for how takeover by an AI company CEO might go, which I developed during MATS with the AI Futures Project. It represents one plausible story among a few that seem roughly equally likely to me. I’m interested in feedback and discussion.
If the future is to hinge on AI, it stands to reason that AI company CEOs are in a good position to usurp power.[1] This didn’t quite happen in our AI 2027 scenarios. In one, the AIs were misaligned and outside any human’s control; in the other, the government semi-nationalized AI before the point of no return, and the CEO... (read 3218 more words →)