Epistemic status: Fun speculation. I'm a dilettante in physics and encryption so some mistakes might be expected. The metaphysical claim: Imagine an external universe that seeks to encrypt or hash an enormous amount of data to defend against a powerful adversary. For this purpose, it has built an extremely sophisticated...
3 days ago there was published a research that swayed me significantly towards the opinion that COVID-19 is spreading better in cold (but not too cold) climates. I believe that the odds for this are probably over 50%, and if it's true there is a practical and scalable (although not...
In a twitter thread, Eliezer Yudkowsky challenges the belief in EMH due to the seemingly illogical behavior of the markets with respect to the COVID-19. In the replies, Robin Hanson asks the obvious question: “what exactly is your better theory?” I've been thinking a lot about EMH in recent years...
Epistemic status: Fun speculation. I'm a dilettante in physics and encryption so some mistakes might be expected.
Imagine an external universe that seeks to encrypt or hash an enormous amount of data to defend against a powerful adversary. For this purpose, it has built an extremely sophisticated and self-contained encryption machine. I suggest that our universe is this encryption machine, which is being simulated by the external world.
Note: Let's leave the encryption vs hashing an open question for now. When discussing encryption, take into account it might also be hashing.
Consider the universe at its inception — perhaps described by the universal Schrödinger equation — as the input data... (read 2360 more words →)
This approach reminds me of the six-sigma manufacturing philosophy which was very successful and impactful in improving manufactured products quality.
Worth adding that the ability to work hard and delay gratification is a privilege, Self-control seems to be 60%[1] heritable (and let's not forget that people also don't choose in which environment they grow up which probably accounts for the other 40%)
In a way, it's privilege all the way down.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0149763418307905
Why is it better to wake up at 3 am compared to 6 or 7 am?
There is research that claims that suffering might serve as an honest signal to get help from your group and that humans suffer more than other animals due to this reason.
you might have taught your system 1 that emotional suffering is useless for signaling purposes and it stopped using it.
If it's true it could be an extremely impactful and even groundbreaking intervention.
Interesting post, would love to hear your opinion about my suggested alternative to EMH, I don't see anything in your post that contradicts it. But i'm having a very hard time accepting the idea that you can't beat the market using public data and infinite amount of computing power.
here's a climate map of Iran. Kind of hard to draw conclusion tbh.
I didn't know about it. Large spread in Indonesia definitely weakens the climate theory.
Both some German cities and New York are listed as potential cities to be under increased risk soon (see the last image at the post) - they actually have pretty similar temperature/humidity profile.
The potential confounders you listed are also relevant to very cold places (northern Europe/Canada) and it seems they are currently less affected.
I agree with the objection regarding Seattle. But I don't think that a situation as bad as in Iran or Italy would go under the radar, the hospitals there are flooded with COVID patients that show the same symptoms over and over and even in the extremely censored China this kind of information eventually leaked.
Spain is only x2 compared to the US right now and this could easily be explained by under testing and proximity to Italy.
Why Iran and Italy and not Thailand and the Philipines?
3 days ago there was published a research that swayed me significantly towards the opinion that COVID-19 is spreading better in cold (but not too cold) climates. I believe that the odds for this are probably over 50%, and if it's true there is a practical and scalable (although not extremely cheap) way to slow down significantly the spread of the coronavirus.
It seems that all current pandemic epicenter share a very similar temperature and humidity (5-11OC and 47-79% humidity). Consider the following map:
As you can see all the central outbreak locations are lying only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor. This shows a correlation... (read 425 more words →)
In a twitter thread, Eliezer Yudkowsky challenges the belief in EMH due to the seemingly illogical behavior of the markets with respect to the COVID-19. In the replies, Robin Hanson asks the obvious question: “what exactly is your better theory?”
I've been thinking a lot about EMH in recent years and would like to propose a different formulation of EMH - a one that I believe resolves some of the obvious issues with the current theory while preserving many of its conclusions and underlying logic at large. I will also suggest in which situations profit can be made and why the market was indeed inefficient in the COVID-19 situation.
Consider the... (read 825 more words →)
