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This resoning works good if I assume that I have average IQ - and so my predictions are averege and so I should not try to predict the market. But most people think that they are smarter then most people. So do the traders.
Smartest traders can first notice trends in psevdorandom enviroment. But mo...(read more)
Put attention on phisical gold. If finansial system would collapse, its price could grew several times (and I read somewhere that on current price gold is covering only 1 per cent of fiat monney - so it could grow 100 times if it will replace paper monney).
And phisacal gold don't depend of any fina...(read more)
Several days ago I have night dream there I met someone who said to me: "you even don''t realize what is your main problem. It is haos". He ment that all that I did during a day or full life was haotic, but not planned.
But I do the same - then I am tired I browes random sites, untill unpredictable...(read more)
"For example, subjects who were paid a nickel for each correct prediction over a thousand trials... predicted [the more common event] 76% of the time."
How it could be? Psychic power?
<p>The main question here is - </p>
<p>Can finite state machine have qualia?</p>
<p>Because suffering is qualia. If it is not, it does''t matter. It is easy to write a programm that print "i am suffering" if you press a button. </p>
<p>So, God cannot influence on result of work of final automata....(read more)
Antropic principle is also optimization process, different from evolution and human mind.
Also collective unconcsiones mind of human population which has created for example languages - is also some kind of optimization process.
Also we shoud mention science.
So in fact we live inside many mind-l...(read more)
Difference between "expirience" and "intelligence" is the difference between aproahes of Google and SIAI.
First gives instant results and grow lineary.
Second will give no result until some treshold will be passed.
Expirience could gave better prediction in complex situation then pure inteligence ...(read more)
But the destruction of the earth in case of creation of blackhole or a stranglet will not be instantaneous, like on YouTube movie.
BH will grow slowly, but exponentialy. By some assumptions it could take 27 years to eat the earth. So we will have time to understand our mistake and to suffer from it...(read more)
I think people would find it more apropriate if you tell about any your own bias that you have until e.g. 15 years old, and then debiased yourself, and tell people around you that they are wrong and that they believe in stupid thing.
It is interesting to mention that Petrov was not simple and ordinary officier in the bunker.
He was an author of instructions for red button. He took this duty that day occasionaly, just 'for rest'. And his own instruction prescribed him to start the war. But being an author of the instruction, he ...(read more)