alexjaniak

The first fully-developed formulation of general-purpose prediction markets originated with Robin Hanson's Idea Futures (1990), a technology "intended to aid the evolution of a wide range of ideas, from public policy to the nature of the universe" that "should be able to help us predict and understand our future". Hanson...

Decision markets aim to extend prediction markets from forecasting outcomes to informing decisions. The core idea stems from Robin Hanson’s proposal for futarchy & policy markets. The mechanism: if a company, government, or institution agrees on a metric of success, prediction markets can determine which policy or action is most...