Thanks for this post. I have always thought this way about bets (I always call 'tails' in a coin flip, for example), and I had a lot of trouble trying to explain to my friends why if I was going to play the lottery, I'd have a set of numbers I'd play every time. I appreciate seeing this spelled out so clearly.
I got here from reading Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, which I think I found on TV Tropes. Once I ran out of story to catch up on, I figured I'd start investigating the source material.
I've read a couple of sequences, but I'll hold off on commenting much until I've gotten through more material. (Especially since the quality of discussions in the comment sections is so high.)
Thanks for an awesome site!