Alumium
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Feedback: I'm biased because I won, but I had a great time. This was very approachable even for a complete beginner, while still having sneaky hidden tricks.
I legitimately did not expect to do that well.
If I have done better than others, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of, uh, ogres at least.
I've gotten two morals from this. The good moral is 'Even if you have no idea what is going on, you can still data science at something.'
The bad moral is 'When in doubt, crib other people's notes (only be sure always to call it please 'research').'
Listed in my first post, along with an updated regular team. Sorry, I should have been more clear.
Okay, I refined my approach somewhat.
I decided to search by pairs or triads of players in the opposing team, rather than just individual fighters (because that might have me selecting the overall strongest team, not a tailored one).
Using pairs, the first-level solution is in fact the same (Blaze Boy, Greenery Giant, Nullifying Nightmare, Rock-n-Roll Ranger, Tidehollow Tyrant). However, when I iterate this, I find something odd.
Nightmare is replaced by Landslide Lord.
Now, this is odd, since Nightmare is great, but a possible solution is revealed by @Maxwell Peterson's awesome analysis. Against specific (strong) characters, the Nightmare falls off. The NPC team includes only 2 or 3 of these, so Nightmare is still good,
Man, it’s hard to say “check your work” without being rude. I understood about half of what you said, so your analysis was almost certainly better than my very basic one. But according to my basic analysis you’ve submitted an elementally imbalanced team which manages to also be weak. Um, no offense. Sorry. It’s just I’d want someone to correct me if I looked wrong.
Further analysis does seem to support this. Although Oil Ooze does as badly against fire as against water.
Some kind of rock-paper-scissors does seem likely.
5 watery fighters as an input team causes my program to output a team that loses Blaze Boy in favor of Quartz Questant. 5 earthy fighters loses Tidehollow Tyrant in favor of Phoenix Paladin.5 fiery fighters loses Blaze Boy in favor of Warrior of Winter.
That last one is strange. I'd expect to lose Greenery Giant there. I guess he's just that strong? Or fire is kind of bad? (Or, I have been cunningly tricked because I am bad at this).
The NPC team looks like 3 earth 1 fire 1 water. So normally you'd want more fire to deal with this. But fire is bad, so instead
Never tried one of these before. I have no idea what I'm doing so we'll see how it goes!
I swear I did the working on my own, but I am producing exactly the same team as another player. I guess that's a good sign?
I've edited my teams based on newer analysis. If this is cheating, just use the old ones!
Regular team:
Blaze Boy, Greenery Giant, Nullifying Nightmare, Rock-n-Roll Ranger, Tidehollow Tyrant
Blaze Boy, Greenery Giant, Landslide Lord, Rock-n-Roll Ranger, Phoenix Paladin
How I got it:
I looked at each champion's win-rate against every other champion. Then I took the 5 champions on their team and looked which champions had the highest mean winrate against all champions
I'm perfectly happy not to claim any sort of prize.
I only got the elements due to Measure.
I only dropped the Nightmare due to Maxwell Peterson.
Also, I have no idea what I'd even ask for as a scenario.