American Psychohistory

Epistemic Status: Speculation. I am not a physicist, and I am disagreeing with a consensus that includes people like Sean Carroll and Sir Roger Penrose. Please treat this as a "I notice I am confused" post rather than a definitive claim. I. The Standard Nightmare The standard story about Boltzmann...

Disclaimer: Most futurology turns out to be totally wrong and utterly without foundation. This goes double for unprecedented world-changing tech like AI. Still, it’s difficult for me to imagine that we won’t see some version of the following scenario. Major Assumption: No Superintelligence Speedrun We might quickly hit AGI and...