The standard simulation argument says that if advanced civilizations run enormous numbers of simulations, then statistically we should expect to be inside one. That leaves open the question of what sort of simulations are run and why. Suppose a civilization reaches technological maturity, solves aging, and expands to occupy its...
Epistemic Status: Speculation. I am not a physicist, and I am disagreeing with a consensus that includes people like Sean Carroll and Sir Roger Penrose. Please treat this as a "I notice I am confused" post rather than a definitive claim. I. The Standard Nightmare The standard story about Boltzmann...
Disclaimer: Most futurology turns out to be totally wrong and utterly without foundation. This goes double for unprecedented world-changing tech like AI. Still, it’s difficult for me to imagine that we won’t see some version of the following scenario. Major Assumption: No Superintelligence Speedrun We might quickly hit AGI and...