This is a crosspost of a post from my blog, Metal Ivy. The original is here: Reinforcement Learning on Forecasting Will Give Us a Superhuman Forecaster. Why RL on forecasting? When DeepSeek R1 came out in January 2025, I felt that the fact that RL on LLMs simply worked was...
“The Delusion of Infinite Economic Growth” is an article published by the Scientific American in 2021, which is one of a long line of pieces making the same argument. They generally all have the same structure: 1. Here are one hundred different resources we rely on that at present our...
This is a crosspost of a post from my blog, Metal Ivy. The original is here: An Opinionated Guide to Statistical Significance. I think for the general audience the value of this post is the first half, which tries to give a practical intuition for p-values. But for LessWrong the...
This is a crosspost of a post from my blog, Metal Ivy. The original is here: A Disciplined Way To Avoid Wireheading. What is wireheading? The term wireheading comes from the observation that if you put a wire in someone’s brain such that it is near their brain’s pleasure (or...
The Many-Worlds Interpretation is an interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, that says that the wave function never collapses - every possible universe exists, every quantum coin flip falls both ways. As far as I'm aware, this interpretation is usually (a) regarded to be just a philosophical interpretation, with no practical effect...