Real life translations:
Expected value = That thing that never happens to me unless it is a bad outcome
Loss aversion = Its just the first week of this month and I have already lost 12 arguments, been ripped off twice and have gotten 0 likes on Tinder
A fair coin flip = Life is not fair
Utility function = Static noise
Thank you for refreshing my memory
Perhaps my memory fails me, but didn´t Anthropic say that they will NOT be the ones pushing the envelope but playing it safe instead? From the METR report : "GPT-4o appeared more capable than Claude 3 Sonnet and GPT-4-Turbo, and slightly less than Claude 3.5 Sonnet."
Existing legal institutions are unprepared for the AGI world.
Every institution is unprepared for the AGI world. And judging from history, laws will always lag behind technological development. I do not think there is much a lawmaker can do than to be reactive to future tech, I think there are just to many "unkown unkowns" to be proactive. Sure you can say "everything is forbidden", but that do not work in reality. I guess the paradox here is that we want the laws to be stable over time but we also want them to be easy to change on a whim.
For starters it could be used as a diplomatic tool with tremendous bargin power as well as a deterrent to anyone that wanted to challenge US post war dominance in all fields.
Now imagine what a machine that is better in solving any problem in all of science than all the smartest people and scientists in world. Would not this machine give the owners EXTREME advantages in all things related to government/military/intelligence?!
Well, how many of in congress and the senate heard about the Manhattan project?
"Keeping 120,000 people quiet would be impossible; therefore only a small privileged cadre of inner scientists and officials knew about the atomic bomb's development. In fact, Vice-President Truman had never heard of the Manhattan Project until he became President Truman."
https://www.ushistory.org/us/51f.asp
When it comes to the scientists, we have no idea if the work they do in "private" companies is a part of a bigger government led effort. Which would be the most efficient way I suppose.
I don't really understand why some people seem to get so upset about the idea that the government/military is involved in developing cutting edge technology. Like AI is some thing that governments/militaries are not aloud to touch? The military industrial complex has been and will always be involved in this kind of endeavors.
To be clear, I am confident that governments and militaries will be extremely interested in AI.
It makes perfect sense that it will turn into a Manhattan project, and it probably (p>0.999999...) already has. The idea that the government, military, and intelligence agencies have not yet received the memo about AI/AGI/ASI is beyond naive.
Just like the extreme advantages of being the first to develop a nuclear bomb, being the first to achieve AGI might carry the same EXTREME advantages.
Are we really sure that we should model AI's in the image of humans? We can apparently not align people with people, so why would a human-replica be that different? If we train an AI to behave like a human, why do we expect the AI to NOT behave like a human? Like it or not, but part of what makes us human is lying, stealing, and violence.
"Fifty-two people lost their lives to homicide globally every hour in 2021, says new report from UN Office on Drugs and Crime". https://unis.unvienna.org/unis/en/pressrels/2023/uniscp1165.html
I think David Buss book "When men behave badly" is a good starting point to try to understand the dynamics in hetrosexual dating and mating.